← GE forward model

GE · Forward model · Insurance (run-off) · Bear case

What has to happen in Insurance (run-off)

Model as of

This page changes Insurance (run-off) inside the complete GE model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GE forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $157.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $272M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.61B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The supply chain relapses or air traffic turns, and the mix problem the basis quarter already showed gets worse. Growth is being bought with dilutive install engines including GE9X: CES operating margin fell 160 basis points year on year even in a 27% growth quarter. Take a point a quarter off growth, two points off margin, and let a cyclical franchise held at 29x EBITDA normalise to 16x, and fair value is $157.93 - 53.0% below the traded price. This is not a demand collapse; it is the aftermarket ramp arriving slower and at lower margin than the guided year implies.

Insurance (run-off)

Basis quarter$715M
Final quarter$272M
Implied CAGR−18%
Final revenue mix2%

A closed long-term care and structured settlement reinsurance book GE has written no new business in for decades and excludes from its own adjusted revenue. It is not an operating business; it is a liability that still passes revenue and a little profit through the income statement while it shrinks. It has to be modelled because GAAP total revenue - the basis of every series on this site - includes it.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $778M Reported
2026 Q2 $715M Reported
Run-off long-term care and structured settlement reinsurance premiums and investment income
Sequential growth −4.5%/qtr decaying toward −3.0% Run-off: $715m against $872m a year earlier, an 18% annual decline, is -4.8% a quarter.
Insurance (run-off)

Latest: $272M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2026Q1 $778M
2026Q2 $715M
2026Q3E $676M
2026Q4E $640M
2027Q1E $606M
2027Q2E $575M
2027Q3E $546M
2027Q4E $519M
2028Q1E $494M
2028Q2E $470M
2028Q3E $448M
2028Q4E $427M
2029Q1E $407M
2029Q2E $389M
2029Q3E $371M
2029Q4E $355M
2030Q1E $339M
2030Q2E $324M
2030Q3E $310M
2030Q4E $297M
2031Q1E $284M
2031Q2E $272M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 23.9% EBITDA margin is not an estimate: it is the disclosed Insurance profit of $171m over the disclosed Insurance revenue of $715m in the basis quarter. It is held flat because a closed book's margin is set by reserve development, not by operations, and GE gives no forward view of it.
  • Capex is exactly zero. A run-off insurance book buys no property, plant or equipment, and GE excludes this line from operating profit altogether - which is why the model's operating-profit cross-check against guidance strips it out again.
  • This line is shrinking about 18% a year and quietly subtracts roughly half a point from consolidated revenue growth every year, which is precisely why GE reports adjusted revenue without it and why consensus comparisons must strip it out too.
GE model map

Explore another vertical