GE · Forward model · Insurance (run-off)
What has to happen in Insurance (run-off)
Model as of
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Insurance (run-off)
Basis quarter$715M
Final quarter$332M
Implied CAGR−14%
Final revenue mix2%
A closed long-term care and structured settlement reinsurance book GE has written no new business in for decades and excludes from its own adjusted revenue. It is not an operating business; it is a liability that still passes revenue and a little profit through the income statement while it shrinks. It has to be modelled because GAAP total revenue - the basis of every series on this site - includes it.
Last four quarters
2026 Q1
$778M
Reported
2026 Q2
$715M
Reported
Run-off long-term care and structured settlement reinsurance premiums and investment income
Sequential growth
−4.5%/qtr
decaying toward −3.0%
Run-off: $715m against $872m a year earlier, an 18% annual decline, is -4.8% a quarter.
Insurance (run-off)
Latest: $332M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $778M |
| 2026Q2 | $715M |
| 2026Q3E | $683M |
| 2026Q4E | $653M |
| 2027Q1E | $625M |
| 2027Q2E | $599M |
| 2027Q3E | $575M |
| 2027Q4E | $552M |
| 2028Q1E | $530M |
| 2028Q2E | $510M |
| 2028Q3E | $491M |
| 2028Q4E | $472M |
| 2029Q1E | $455M |
| 2029Q2E | $439M |
| 2029Q3E | $423M |
| 2029Q4E | $408M |
| 2030Q1E | $394M |
| 2030Q2E | $381M |
| 2030Q3E | $368M |
| 2030Q4E | $355M |
| 2031Q1E | $343M |
| 2031Q2E | $332M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 23.9% EBITDA margin is not an estimate: it is the disclosed Insurance profit of $171m over the disclosed Insurance revenue of $715m in the basis quarter. It is held flat because a closed book's margin is set by reserve development, not by operations, and GE gives no forward view of it.
- Capex is exactly zero. A run-off insurance book buys no property, plant or equipment, and GE excludes this line from operating profit altogether - which is why the model's operating-profit cross-check against guidance strips it out again.
- This line is shrinking about 18% a year and quietly subtracts roughly half a point from consolidated revenue growth every year, which is precisely why GE reports adjusted revenue without it and why consensus comparisons must strip it out too.