GE · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

BASIS. This is the hardest thing about GE. General Electric Company spun off GE HealthCare on 3 January 2023 and GE Vernova on 2 April 2024, and current filings present both as discontinued operations. That means two different revenue histories exist for the same quarters: as originally reported, and as recast. Everything here - revenue, EPS, cash flow, margins, and the series on the stock page this model sits behind - is CONTINUING OPERATIONS, GE Aerospace standalone, as recast in the most recent filings. On that basis 2026 Q2 revenue was $13,349m and continuing-operations diluted EPS $2.30. Mixing an as-originally-reported quarter into this series would not look like a rounding error; it would look like a company that shrank by two thirds. FREE CASH FLOW. GE publishes its own non-GAAP free cash flow, $3,027m in the basis quarter, which adds back PP&E disposals, separation cash expenditures and Corporate & Other restructuring cash expenditures. The stock page does not use it. The repository standard is operating cash flow less gross additions to property, plant and equipment: $3,258m less $335m, or $2,923m - $104m (3.4%) below GE's figure, and roughly $0.3-$0.4bn below it on the guided full year. Separately, the FCF line inside THIS model is the projection engine's own construction, EBITDA less capex less tax, so it carries no working capital and no cash interest and should not be read against either of the other two. SEGMENT HISTORY. Two quarters, and that is a disclosure limit rather than a shortcut. Effective 2026 GE moved its Aeroderivative business from CES to DPT and recast only the quarters it has since restated - 2025 Q1, 2025 Q2, 2026 Q1 and 2026 Q2. The recast is material: 2025 Q2 CES went from $7,990m as printed to $7,646m, and DPT from $2,563m to $2,978m. No recast for 2025 Q3 or 2025 Q4 exists in any filing, 8-K or investor document, and the engine requires contiguous history, so the series starts where the current definition starts. It will extend itself as the 2026 Q3 and Q4 filings restate those quarters. The only estimated point in the model is Eliminations & Other for 2026 Q1: GE prints $(519)m, which makes its own segment subtotal foot to $11,615m against the $11,614m it prints elsewhere, so the model uses $(520)m - the exact residual of the disclosed $12,392m GAAP total less the three other disclosed lines. SEASONALITY. None applied, and that is a finding. A centred four-quarter moving average over the fourteen-quarter continuing-operations revenue series does produce a seasonal-looking shape (factors 0.95 / 0.97 / 1.03 / 1.04, signal 0.094 against a worst window spread of 0.037). But a log-linear detrend of the same series - which removes the 3.75%-a-quarter exponential trend exactly rather than locally - gives signal 0.087 against a worst within-quarter spread of 0.108, which is no seasonality at all. The two disagree because the line has accelerated for four straight years, and an accelerating line looks back-half weighted to any moving average. Both external anchors settle it: GE's raised guide implies second-half adjusted revenue only about 7% above the first half, and Street consensus for 2026 Q3 adjusted revenue of $12.29bn is BELOW the $12.63bn just reported. Neither is consistent with a 5% third- and fourth-quarter lift, so the deceleration is carried by the growth rate, where the evidence is. WHAT IS DISCLOSED AND WHAT IS NOT. Every revenue actual is disclosed. Segment EBITDA margins are derived: GE's own guided full-year 2026 segment operating margins plus a depreciation and amortisation allowance taken from the disclosed $625m of first-half company D&A. The Insurance margin (23.9%) and the Eliminations margin (33.0%) are disclosed ratios - $171m over $715m and $(178)m over $(540)m - not judgements. Corporate overhead of 1.1% of revenue is derived so the model reproduces GE's guided $(1.2)-$(1.3)bn Corporate Cost & Eliminations after the eliminations vertical carries its half. The 15% tax rate is rounded up from a 13.2% first-half actual. Long-run growth rates, terminal margins, the 8.5% discount rate and the 20x exit multiple are assumptions. WHERE THE MODEL DISAGREES WITH THE STREET. The base case projects 2026 Q3 GAAP revenue of $13,550m, which is $12,867m of adjusted revenue - about 4.7% above the $12.29bn consensus for that quarter, and 11.2% above the year-ago quarter. The model sides with GE's disclosed order book and supplier input rather than with a consensus that was 8.6% too low on the quarter just reported. TERMINAL CONCENTRATION. 83.0% of base-case enterprise value sits in the terminal value, so the exit multiple deserves more scrutiny than any operating assumption: each 1x is $10.74 a share, and 28.0x is what would justify today's price on the base path.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.