DOCU · Forward model · Thygesen case

The Thygesen case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-31

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Docusign operates one operating and one reportable segment, so there is no segment profitability anywhere in its filings and no product-level revenue. Two revenue disaggregations are disclosed quarterly and both foot to reported revenue exactly: subscription against professional services and other, and U.S. against international. This model takes the first, because it separates a 97.7% ratable line with a real operational driver from a 2.3% one-off line with a different one; the geographic split was rejected because Docusign publishes no customer count, price, margin or capex by geography, so both of its lines would collapse to a bare growth rate. Every one of the twenty-six historical values in this spec is a figure filed with the SEC: nothing is estimated, nothing is apportioned, and the two verticals sum to reported total revenue in all thirteen quarters. Three things this model deliberately does not do. It does not split out Intelligent Agreement Management, because IAM is disclosed only as a percentage of ARR at three dates and as 'over $350 million in ARR' for fiscal 2026 - turning that into a quarterly revenue history would be manufacturing a segment. It does not use a quarterly ARR series, because Docusign states plainly that it reports ARR annually at fiscal year end. And it does not model the buyback: the engine holds the share count fixed, so the $2.4 billion of remaining authorisation - close to a fifth of the market capitalisation, and about 2.8 years of repurchases at the fiscal 2026 pace of $869 million - is absent from the per-share result, which is conservative for that reason. The EBITDA margin is a calibrated cash margin rather than a reported one, for the reason set out in the subscription line's notes; anyone reading 52.6% as an operating margin will misread this model.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.