DOCU · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Docusign operates one operating and one reportable segment, so there is no segment profitability anywhere in its filings and no product-level revenue. Two revenue disaggregations are disclosed quarterly and both foot to reported revenue exactly: subscription against professional services and other, and U.S. against international. This model takes the first, because it separates a 97.7% ratable line with a real operational driver from a 2.3% one-off line with a different one; the geographic split was rejected because Docusign publishes no customer count, price, margin or capex by geography, so both of its lines would collapse to a bare growth rate. Every one of the twenty-six historical values in this spec is a figure filed with the SEC: nothing is estimated, nothing is apportioned, and the two verticals sum to reported total revenue in all thirteen quarters. Three things this model deliberately does not do. It does not split out Intelligent Agreement Management, because IAM is disclosed only as a percentage of ARR at three dates and as 'over $350 million in ARR' for fiscal 2026 - turning that into a quarterly revenue history would be manufacturing a segment. It does not use a quarterly ARR series, because Docusign states plainly that it reports ARR annually at fiscal year end. And it does not model the buyback: the engine holds the share count fixed, so the $2.4 billion of remaining authorisation - close to a fifth of the market capitalisation, and about 2.8 years of repurchases at the fiscal 2026 pace of $869 million - is absent from the per-share result, which is conservative for that reason. The EBITDA margin is a calibrated cash margin rather than a reported one, for the reason set out in the subscription line's notes; anyone reading 52.6% as an operating margin will misread this model.
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Latest: $1.09B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $661M |
| 2024Q2 | $688M |
| 2024Q3 | $700M |
| 2024Q4 | $712M |
| 2025Q1 | $710M |
| 2025Q2 | $736M |
| 2025Q3 | $755M |
| 2025Q4 | $776M |
| 2026Q1 | $764M |
| 2026Q2 | $801M |
| 2026Q3 | $818M |
| 2026Q4 | $837M |
| 2027Q1 | $830M |
| 2027Q2E | $863M |
| 2027Q3E | $879M |
| 2027Q4E | $897M |
| 2028Q1E | $884M |
| 2028Q2E | $917M |
| 2028Q3E | $933M |
| 2028Q4E | $951M |
| 2029Q1E | $935M |
| 2029Q2E | $969M |
| 2029Q3E | $985M |
| 2029Q4E | $1.00B |
| 2030Q1E | $986M |
| 2030Q2E | $1.02B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.04B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.05B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.04B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.07B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.09B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.11B |
| 2032Q1E | $1.09B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the company and the sell side say
- Jun 4, 2026 revenue guidance range would be approximately 1.4% points lower for the quarter ending July 31, 2026 and 1.3% points lower for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027
- Aug 31, 2026 The consensus 12-month price objective stands at "57.52" (representing a "-12.81%" change). Target range spans from a low of "46.89" to a high of "86".
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The IAM attach the company discloses
- Jun 4, 2026 Intelligent Agreement Management (“IAM”) represented 12.6% of our total Annual Recurring Revenue (“ARR”) as of April 30, 2026, compared to 10.8% of our total ARR as of January 31, 2026
- Mar 18, 2026 IAM represented 10.8% of our total ARR as of January 31, 2026, and 2.3% of our total ARR as of January 31, 2025
- Mar 17, 2026 In 2026, customers using IAM represented over $350 million in ARR, and Docusign reached record highs for operating margin and free cash flow
Thygesen case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Thygesen column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The chief executive and the capital return
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 10.0% a year with an exit multiple of 2.2x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $4.80B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $4.35B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $1.90B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 2.2x |
| Terminal value | $9.58B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $5.95B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 55% |
| Enterprise value | $10.75B |
| Net cash | $1.02B |
| Equity value | $11.77B |
| Shares | 0.19B |
| Fair value per share | $61.65 |
| Against the deployed price of $67.15, as of | −8% |
10% on a profitable software business with $1.0 billion of net cash, no borrowings and no financing need. The exit multiple is the largest single lever here and it is anchored on Docusign's own compression rather than on an asserted peer set: no comparable multiple was independently verified in the research pass. The shares trade at 3.41x trailing twelve-month revenue and 3.20x the guided fiscal 2027 midpoint today; 3.0x on a line that has faded to 6-7% growth by 2031 is mild compression, and the bear and bull cases move it to 2.2x and 3.8x. That matters: 61.9% of base-case enterprise value sits in the terminal, rising to 66.9% in the bull case, so each 0.1x of exit multiple is worth about $1.50 a share. The tax rate is management's own projected non-GAAP rate of 21%, which is well above the 11.0% effective and roughly 9.7% cash rate Docusign actually paid in fiscal 2026 against $805.1 million of remaining deferred tax assets - the vertical EBITDA margin is calibrated against actual free cash flow at that 21% rate, so the two halves are consistent.
Read the other way round: at $67.15 the market is paying 2.6x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Subscription | Professional services and other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q2E | $844M | $19M | $863M | +8% | $365M | $30M | $264M | +38 | $258M |
| 2027 Q3E | $860M | $19M | $879M | +7% | $373M | $31M | $270M | +38 | $257M |
| 2027 Q4E | $878M | $19M | $897M | +7% | $381M | $31M | $276M | +38 | $257M |
| 2028 Q1E | $865M | $19M | $884M | +6% | $377M | $31M | $273M | +37 | $248M |
| 2028 Q2E | $898M | $19M | $917M | +6% | $392M | $32M | $284M | +37 | $252M |
| 2028 Q3E | $914M | $19M | $933M | +6% | $400M | $33M | $290M | +37 | $251M |
| 2028 Q4E | $932M | $19M | $951M | +6% | $408M | $33M | $296M | +37 | $251M |
| 2029 Q1E | $916M | $19M | $935M | +6% | $402M | $33M | $292M | +37 | $241M |
| 2029 Q2E | $951M | $19M | $969M | +6% | $418M | $34M | $303M | +37 | $245M |
| 2029 Q3E | $966M | $19M | $985M | +6% | $426M | $34M | $309M | +37 | $243M |
| 2029 Q4E | $984M | $19M | $1.00B | +5% | $434M | $35M | $315M | +37 | $243M |
| 2030 Q1E | $967M | $19M | $986M | +5% | $427M | $34M | $310M | +37 | $233M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.00B | $19M | $1.02B | +5% | $443M | $36M | $322M | +37 | $236M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.02B | $19M | $1.04B | +5% | $451M | $36M | $327M | +37 | $235M |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.04B | $18M | $1.05B | +5% | $459M | $37M | $334M | +37 | $233M |
| 2031 Q1E | $1.02B | $18M | $1.04B | +5% | $452M | $36M | $328M | +37 | $224M |
| 2031 Q2E | $1.05B | $18M | $1.07B | +5% | $468M | $38M | $340M | +37 | $227M |
| 2031 Q3E | $1.07B | $18M | $1.09B | +5% | $476M | $38M | $346M | +37 | $225M |
| 2031 Q4E | $1.09B | $18M | $1.11B | +5% | $484M | $39M | $352M | +37 | $224M |
| 2032 Q1E | $1.07B | $18M | $1.09B | +5% | $476M | $38M | $346M | +37 | $215M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | $79.28 | First model. Built on the fiscal 2027 Q1 basis quarter, three days before Docusign reports fiscal 2027 Q2 on 3 September 2026, so the guided quarter this model reproduces becomes a testable actual almost immediately. |