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DDOG · Forward model · International · Bull case

What has to happen in International

Model as of

This page changes International inside the complete DDOG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

DDOG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $301.17 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $889M 27% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.40B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The forward book is growing faster than revenue, which is the one thing a usage-metered business cannot fake. Remaining performance obligations reached $3,471.4 million, up 43.1% year over year against revenue growth of 35.6%, and management put billings at $1.18 billion, up 38%. Net retention moved up to the low-120%'s from about 120%. The AI franchise is broad rather than single-name - over 750 AI customers, 31 above $1 million and 8 above $10 million a year. If the largest customer is the only account optimising, the contracted book says growth reaccelerates once it laps, and the multiple holds at 12x.

International

Basis quarter$297M
Final quarter$889M
Implied CAGR+25%
Final revenue mix27%

The steady half of the business: eight consecutive quarters of 22.5-24.0% growth with none of the AI-native volatility, and 26.5% of revenue. It is the residual of the only disclosed revenue disaggregation and cannot be broken down further, because the 10-K states that other than the United States no individual country reached 10% of total revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023. No volume, price or utilisation metric is published for it, so it is modelled as growth on the reported line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $252M Reported
2025 Q4 $275M Estimated
2026 Q1 $282M Reported
2026 Q2 $297M Reported
The same usage-metered observability and security platform sold outside North America. No country-level or product-level split is disclosed anywhere in the filings.
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.1% 4.95% a quarter holds this line at 23.5% year over year in Q3 2026, the midpoint of its eight-quarter 22.5-24.0% band.
International

Latest: $889M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $205M
2024Q4 $222M
2025Q1 $228M
2025Q2 $240M
2025Q3 $252M
2025Q4 $275M
2026Q1 $282M
2026Q2 $297M
2026Q3E $315M
2026Q4E $344M
2027Q1E $356M
2027Q2E $376M
2027Q3E $398M
2027Q4E $433M
2028Q1E $446M
2028Q2E $471M
2028Q3E $497M
2028Q4E $539M
2029Q1E $555M
2029Q2E $585M
2029Q3E $616M
2029Q4E $668M
2030Q1E $686M
2030Q2E $722M
2030Q3E $760M
2030Q4E $823M
2031Q1E $845M
2031Q2E $889M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Every quarter is the International line of the 10-Q disaggregation table. The two fourth quarters are the fiscal year less the nine months and are marked estimated for that reason, not because anything was apportioned.
  • Identical margin and capex inputs to North America by disclosure necessity: the CODM reviews consolidated net income and no geographic profitability exists to model. The only honest geographic differentiation in this model is the revenue growth path.
  • Operating expenses are partly hedged with foreign currency forwards but revenue is never presented on a constant-currency basis, so part of this line's stability may be currency rather than demand. That is the reason the terminal rate sits below North America's.
  • The seasonal factors are fitted to the eight disclosed quarters: the only material one is a fourth quarter about 2.0% above trend, which is why the Q4 sequential step looks larger than the year-over-year rate.
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