← DDOG forward model

DDOG · Forward model · International · Bear case

What has to happen in International

Model as of

This page changes International inside the complete DDOG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

DDOG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $91.45 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $458M 27% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.42B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The disclosed concentration unwinds rather than merely optimises. Strip the AI-native cohort's high single digit percentage points of growth contribution and the underlying business is a 27-29% grower - exactly where the Q3 guide lands - but the bear case says the fade runs past the one account: gross margin has already slipped to 78.6% from 79.9%, and customers above $100k of ARR grew 22.6% against revenue at 35.6%, so the platform is leaning on deeper spend from a slowly widening base. The multiple compresses to 5.5x and the discount rate rises with the growth risk.

International

Basis quarter$297M
Final quarter$458M
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix27%

The steady half of the business: eight consecutive quarters of 22.5-24.0% growth with none of the AI-native volatility, and 26.5% of revenue. It is the residual of the only disclosed revenue disaggregation and cannot be broken down further, because the 10-K states that other than the United States no individual country reached 10% of total revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023. No volume, price or utilisation metric is published for it, so it is modelled as growth on the reported line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $252M Reported
2025 Q4 $275M Estimated
2026 Q1 $282M Reported
2026 Q2 $297M Reported
The same usage-metered observability and security platform sold outside North America. No country-level or product-level split is disclosed anywhere in the filings.
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.1% 4.95% a quarter holds this line at 23.5% year over year in Q3 2026, the midpoint of its eight-quarter 22.5-24.0% band.
International

Latest: $458M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $205M
2024Q4 $222M
2025Q1 $228M
2025Q2 $240M
2025Q3 $252M
2025Q4 $275M
2026Q1 $282M
2026Q2 $297M
2026Q3E $307M
2026Q4E $327M
2027Q1E $329M
2027Q2E $338M
2027Q3E $346M
2027Q4E $366M
2028Q1E $365M
2028Q2E $373M
2028Q3E $380M
2028Q4E $399M
2029Q1E $397M
2029Q2E $404M
2029Q3E $411M
2029Q4E $430M
2030Q1E $426M
2030Q2E $432M
2030Q3E $438M
2030Q4E $457M
2031Q1E $453M
2031Q2E $458M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Every quarter is the International line of the 10-Q disaggregation table. The two fourth quarters are the fiscal year less the nine months and are marked estimated for that reason, not because anything was apportioned.
  • Identical margin and capex inputs to North America by disclosure necessity: the CODM reviews consolidated net income and no geographic profitability exists to model. The only honest geographic differentiation in this model is the revenue growth path.
  • Operating expenses are partly hedged with foreign currency forwards but revenue is never presented on a constant-currency basis, so part of this line's stability may be currency rather than demand. That is the reason the terminal rate sits below North America's.
  • The seasonal factors are fitted to the eight disclosed quarters: the only material one is a fourth quarter about 2.0% above trend, which is why the Q4 sequential step looks larger than the year-over-year rate.
DDOG model map

Explore another vertical