DDOG · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Datadog reports one operating and reportable segment, so this model uses the only revenue disaggregation it discloses: North America and International, which foot to reported revenue to the dollar in all six directly filed quarters and to within $4 thousand in the two fourth quarters that are derived as the fiscal year less the nine months. Nothing is split by product, because no product-line revenue is disclosed; nothing is built off total ARR, because Datadog never publishes one. Both verticals carry the consolidated cost structure - the chief operating decision maker reviews consolidated net income and no geographic profitability exists - and this is stated openly rather than dressed as a geographic insight. The projected margin is calibrated to cash rather than to GAAP: the basis-quarter inputs reproduce the house free-cash-flow margin of 27.3% ($306.0 million on $1,121.5 million, operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment), which is $27.3 million above Datadog's own free-cash-flow definition because the company also deducts capitalised software. Corporate overhead is the disclosed general and administrative line at 7.7% of revenue; capex intensity is management's guided 4-5% of revenue for capex and capitalised software together, taken at the 4.5% midpoint; the tax rate is Datadog's stated 21% long-term projected rate. The one-off step in the North America driver is this model's calibration of a disclosed but unsized event - the largest customer's usage reduction, in a company that reports no customer at or above 10% of revenue - and the choice to put it in North America rather than International is inference from the growth-rate fingerprint, not disclosure. The exit multiple is the largest single lever and is an assumption: no peer multiple was independently verified.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.