DASH · Forward model · International · Bear case
What has to happen in International
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International
Basis quarter$997M
Final quarter$1.46B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix25%
Wolt, Deliveroo and the rest of the non-US marketplaces across more than 40 countries. $997m of revenue in the basis quarter, 22.4% of the group. The 119% year-on-year increase is overwhelmingly inorganic - Deliveroo closed on 2 October 2025, so it is in the numerator and absent from the base - which is why this line is driven off the sequential path, +2.9% in 2026 Q1 and +7.0% in 2026 Q2, rather than off any year-on-year rate.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$520M
Reported
2025 Q4
$906M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$932M
Reported
2026 Q2
$997M
Reported
Wolt MarketplaceDeliveroo MarketplaceWolt+ and Deliveroo Plus membership feesInternational retail and groceryInternational Commerce Platform
Sequential growth
+4.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.5%
Under the +7.0% sequential step just delivered, the only clean read with Deliveroo in both periods.
International
Latest: $1.46B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $376M |
| 2025Q2 | $455M |
| 2025Q3 | $520M |
| 2025Q4 | $906M |
| 2026Q1 | $932M |
| 2026Q2 | $997M |
| 2026Q3E | $1.02B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.05B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.08B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.10B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.13B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.15B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.24B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.27B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.31B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.33B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.35B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.37B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.42B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.44B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.46B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Deliveroo closed on 2 October 2025. The 119% year-on-year international growth rate is not a run rate and is not extrapolated here; the driver is set off the sequential path until the acquisition laps in 2026 Q4.
- ASEASONAL, derived. Ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average on the six filed international quarters gives 0.8205 for 2025 Q3 and 1.1751 for 2025 Q4. That 35-point swing is the Deliveroo close moving through the moving-average window, not a season: it is a one-off level shift observed once, which cannot be separated from a seasonal factor on a single observation. No quarter label repeats, so the window-to-window spread is unmeasurable and by construction at least as large as the apparent signal. No seasonality is applied.
- Management's only quantified international statements in the Q2 2026 materials are relative - Wolt month-3 and month-6 cohort order rates rose year on year while unit economics improved substantially, and Deliveroo year-on-year MAU and Total Orders growth accelerated. No international revenue, order or margin figure is attached to either, so none is modelled.
- No international Adjusted EBITDA is published. The basis margin is the consolidated 20.52%, which almost certainly overstates this line; the terminal margin is set five points under the US to reflect management's improving-unit-economics language without inventing a number. Long-lived assets outside the United States were $375m at 31 December 2025, of which $173m in Finland - the only geographic balance-sheet split DoorDash files.