DASH · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
DoorDash operates one reportable segment. The only revenue disaggregation it files is United States versus International, and that is exactly the split modelled here: six quarters ending at the basis quarter, reconciling to reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in every period. 2025 Q4 is derived by subtracting the nine-month figures in the Q3 2025 10-Q from the full-year figures in the 2025 10-K and is marked estimated in both lines. Everything else in the history is a filed figure. Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, average order value and Net Revenue Margin exist only at consolidated level and are deliberately not apportioned. Geographic profitability is not disclosed at all, so both lines carry the same consolidated 20.52% Adjusted EBITDA margin at the basis quarter - consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is therefore exactly right and only the forward mix is an assumption. Capex intensity of 4.43% of revenue is DoorDash's own Free Cash Flow definition, deducting purchases of property and equipment AND capitalised software; the r40 stored capex series deducts property and equipment only, which is roughly 1.4% of revenue, and the two must never be mixed. Corporate overhead is zero by construction because Adjusted EBITDA is already an after-overhead measure. Neither vertical carries seasonality: on ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average the window-to-window spread meets or exceeds any signal in both lines, and the one large international swing is the October 2025 Deliveroo close moving through the averaging window rather than a season. No sell-side revenue consensus is used anywhere in this model; the research brief records that none was verified on an attributable basis. One guided shape this engine cannot draw: management expects Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to rise in 2026 Q3 and fall in 2026 Q4, and a monotone margin glide cannot dip for one quarter and resume, so the model's Adjusted EBITDA margin rises through both. The guided Q4 weakness still shows, on the half where DoorDash actually disclosed it: the $750m merchant-payment-timing outflow cuts the 2026 Q4 free-cash-flow margin to 1.4% and the Rule of 40 score to 20.9, against 14.8% and 48.0 in the quarter before it.
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Latest: $5.74B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.28B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.45B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.04B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.45B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.54B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.61B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.69B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.76B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.83B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.90B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.97B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.03B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.16B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.22B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.28B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.34B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.40B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.46B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.51B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.57B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.63B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.69B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.74B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 financial outlook
- Aug 5, 2026 In H2 2026, we expect Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to follow a similar pattern to H2 2025, with a Q/Q increase in Q3 2026 followed by a Q/Q decline in Q4 2026.
- Aug 5, 2026 2026 year-end timing for merchant payments compared to the end of 2025 is expected to reduce reported 2026 Free Cash Flow by between $700 million and $800 million.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Xu case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Xu column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter, autonomy and platform
- Aug 5, 2026 we expect Dot to deliver a high single-digit percentage of orders in our largest test market by the end of the year
- Aug 5, 2026 We expect to begin seeing benefits from our new global technology platform once it is fully rolled out, which we currently expect to be in the first half of 2027.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.0% a year with an exit multiple of 18.0x on EBITDA. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $10.09B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $22.63B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $4.86B |
| Exit multiple, on EBITDA | 18.0x |
| Terminal value | $87.49B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $51.92B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 84% |
| Enterprise value | $62.01B |
| Net cash | $3.47B |
| Equity value | $65.48B |
| Shares | 0.43B |
| Fair value per share | $151.12 |
| Against the deployed price of $183.55, as of | −18% |
Exit on Adjusted EBITDA at 18x, roughly 40% below the 31.0x trailing multiple DoorDash carries at the $236.93 close on an enterprise value of $99.2bn against $3,202m of trailing Adjusted EBITDA. The de-rating reflects growth decaying from 36% year on year to high single digits by the horizon. The 4.0x exit revenue multiple is a documented cross-check only and is not used: the engine takes the EBITDA basis whenever it is set. No peer trading multiple was independently verified in the research pass, so none is quoted.
Read the other way round: at $183.55 the market is paying 22.9x terminal-year EBITDA, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Year-end merchant payment timing
2026 Q4 → 2026 Q4DoorDash guides that 2026 year-end merchant payment timing against the end of 2025 reduces reported 2026 Free Cash Flow by $700-800m. It is booked here at the $750m midpoint as a single 2026 Q4 cash outflow because it never touches Adjusted EBITDA and lands entirely on the cash half of the Rule of 40 score. Whether it reverses into 2027 is not disclosed, so no reversal is modelled - the conservative reading.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | United States | International | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $3.51B | $1.02B | $4.54B | +32% | $786M | $204M | $512M | +43 | $499M |
| 2026 Q4E | $3.56B | $1.05B | $4.61B | +17% | $831M | $959M | −$129M | +14 | −$122M |
| 2027 Q1E | $3.61B | $1.08B | $4.69B | +16% | $871M | $215M | $577M | +29 | $534M |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.66B | $1.10B | $4.76B | +7% | $908M | $220M | $605M | +20 | $545M |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.71B | $1.13B | $4.83B | +7% | $941M | $225M | $630M | +20 | $553M |
| 2027 Q4E | $3.75B | $1.15B | $4.90B | +6% | $972M | $230M | $652M | +20 | $558M |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.79B | $1.17B | $4.97B | +6% | $999M | $235M | $673M | +19 | $561M |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.83B | $1.20B | $5.03B | +6% | $1.03B | $239M | $691M | +19 | $561M |
| 2028 Q3E | $3.87B | $1.22B | $5.10B | +5% | $1.05B | $244M | $709M | +19 | $560M |
| 2028 Q4E | $3.91B | $1.24B | $5.16B | +5% | $1.07B | $248M | $724M | +19 | $558M |
| 2029 Q1E | $3.95B | $1.27B | $5.22B | +5% | $1.09B | $252M | $739M | +19 | $554M |
| 2029 Q2E | $3.99B | $1.29B | $5.28B | +5% | $1.11B | $255M | $752M | +19 | $550M |
| 2029 Q3E | $4.03B | $1.31B | $5.34B | +5% | $1.13B | $259M | $765M | +19 | $545M |
| 2029 Q4E | $4.07B | $1.33B | $5.40B | +5% | $1.15B | $263M | $777M | +19 | $539M |
| 2030 Q1E | $4.10B | $1.35B | $5.46B | +5% | $1.16B | $266M | $788M | +19 | $533M |
| 2030 Q2E | $4.14B | $1.37B | $5.51B | +4% | $1.18B | $270M | $799M | +19 | $527M |
| 2030 Q3E | $4.18B | $1.40B | $5.57B | +4% | $1.19B | $273M | $810M | +19 | $520M |
| 2030 Q4E | $4.21B | $1.42B | $5.63B | +4% | $1.21B | $277M | $820M | +19 | $513M |
| 2031 Q1E | $4.25B | $1.44B | $5.69B | +4% | $1.22B | $280M | $829M | +19 | $505M |
| 2031 Q2E | $4.29B | $1.46B | $5.74B | +4% | $1.24B | $283M | $839M | +19 | $498M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | — | Initial model, built on the 2026 Q2 basis quarter from the verified research brief. Two verticals on the only revenue disaggregation DoorDash files - United States and International - both on growth drivers, because no geographic order, Marketplace GOV or margin figure exists to drive anything else. |