DASH · Forward model · Xu case

The Xu case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

DoorDash operates one reportable segment. The only revenue disaggregation it files is United States versus International, and that is exactly the split modelled here: six quarters ending at the basis quarter, reconciling to reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in every period. 2025 Q4 is derived by subtracting the nine-month figures in the Q3 2025 10-Q from the full-year figures in the 2025 10-K and is marked estimated in both lines. Everything else in the history is a filed figure. Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, average order value and Net Revenue Margin exist only at consolidated level and are deliberately not apportioned. Geographic profitability is not disclosed at all, so both lines carry the same consolidated 20.52% Adjusted EBITDA margin at the basis quarter - consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is therefore exactly right and only the forward mix is an assumption. Capex intensity of 4.43% of revenue is DoorDash's own Free Cash Flow definition, deducting purchases of property and equipment AND capitalised software; the r40 stored capex series deducts property and equipment only, which is roughly 1.4% of revenue, and the two must never be mixed. Corporate overhead is zero by construction because Adjusted EBITDA is already an after-overhead measure. Neither vertical carries seasonality: on ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average the window-to-window spread meets or exceeds any signal in both lines, and the one large international swing is the October 2025 Deliveroo close moving through the averaging window rather than a season. No sell-side revenue consensus is used anywhere in this model; the research brief records that none was verified on an attributable basis. One guided shape this engine cannot draw: management expects Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to rise in 2026 Q3 and fall in 2026 Q4, and a monotone margin glide cannot dip for one quarter and resume, so the model's Adjusted EBITDA margin rises through both. The guided Q4 weakness still shows, on the half where DoorDash actually disclosed it: the $750m merchant-payment-timing outflow cuts the 2026 Q4 free-cash-flow margin to 1.4% and the Rule of 40 score to 20.9, against 14.8% and 48.0 in the quarter before it.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

Capex outside the verticals

Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.