DASH · Forward model · Xu case
The Xu case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
DoorDash operates one reportable segment. The only revenue disaggregation it files is United States versus International, and that is exactly the split modelled here: six quarters ending at the basis quarter, reconciling to reported consolidated revenue with zero residual in every period. 2025 Q4 is derived by subtracting the nine-month figures in the Q3 2025 10-Q from the full-year figures in the 2025 10-K and is marked estimated in both lines. Everything else in the history is a filed figure. Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, average order value and Net Revenue Margin exist only at consolidated level and are deliberately not apportioned. Geographic profitability is not disclosed at all, so both lines carry the same consolidated 20.52% Adjusted EBITDA margin at the basis quarter - consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is therefore exactly right and only the forward mix is an assumption. Capex intensity of 4.43% of revenue is DoorDash's own Free Cash Flow definition, deducting purchases of property and equipment AND capitalised software; the r40 stored capex series deducts property and equipment only, which is roughly 1.4% of revenue, and the two must never be mixed. Corporate overhead is zero by construction because Adjusted EBITDA is already an after-overhead measure. Neither vertical carries seasonality: on ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average the window-to-window spread meets or exceeds any signal in both lines, and the one large international swing is the October 2025 Deliveroo close moving through the averaging window rather than a season. No sell-side revenue consensus is used anywhere in this model; the research brief records that none was verified on an attributable basis. One guided shape this engine cannot draw: management expects Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to rise in 2026 Q3 and fall in 2026 Q4, and a monotone margin glide cannot dip for one quarter and resume, so the model's Adjusted EBITDA margin rises through both. The guided Q4 weakness still shows, on the half where DoorDash actually disclosed it: the $750m merchant-payment-timing outflow cuts the 2026 Q4 free-cash-flow margin to 1.4% and the Rule of 40 score to 20.9, against 14.8% and 48.0 in the quarter before it.
Tony Xu's autonomy-and-platform case: cost per delivery falls as robots take a real share of volume and one global codebase replaces three. DoorDash expects Dot to deliver a high-single-digit percentage of orders in its largest test market by the end of 2026, has earned FAA Part 135 air carrier certification for DoorDash Air, and expects the single global technology platform to be fully rolled out in H1 2027. It is expressed here only as margin - two points above the basis rate, plus 0.3 points a quarter of growth - because there is nothing else to express it as. It reaches $259.88, near the verified $252.30 average analyst target but arrived at from disclosed milestones rather than from anyone's target. What this case does NOT reach: DoorDash publishes no robot count, no autonomy spend, no cost per delivery and no revenue attribution for any of it, and the only quantified near-term effect disclosed is negative, since autonomy and the platform are two of the named causes of the expected Q4 2026 margin decline. Nothing here is a company financial target.
Latest: $7.76B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.03B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.28B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.45B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.04B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.45B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.60B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.76B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.91B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.06B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.21B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.36B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.52B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.68B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.84B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.00B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.16B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.33B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.49B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.67B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.84B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.02B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.38B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.57B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.76B |
What drives each segment
United States
Growth pathThe DoorDash Marketplace and Commerce Platform in the US: restaurants, grocery and retail, DashPass, advertising, Drive and SevenRooms. $3,457m of revenue in the basis quarter, 77.6% of the group, up 22.2% year on year. Revenue by geographic area is a filed disaggregation in every 10-Q, so this split is disclosed rather than apportioned. No US-specific order count, Marketplace GOV or margin is published anywhere, so the driver has to be revenue growth rather than the consolidated orders-times-basket chain.
Latest: $5.79B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.66B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.83B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.93B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.05B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.46B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.56B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.67B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.78B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.89B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.00B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.10B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.21B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.33B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.44B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.55B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.67B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.78B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.90B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.02B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.14B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.27B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.53B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.66B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.79B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- DoorDash operates one reportable segment. The only revenue disaggregation it files is United States versus International, and that is the disaggregation used here. 2025 Q4 is derived by subtracting the nine-month figures in the Q3 2025 10-Q from the full-year figures in the 2025 10-K, so it is marked estimated; the two derived halves sum to the reported $3,955m exactly.
- Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, average order value and Net Revenue Margin are disclosed only for the group and are deliberately not split across the two lines. For context they read 970 million orders at a derived $34.10 average order value, giving $33,078m of Marketplace GOV monetised at 13.5%.
- ASEASONAL, derived. Ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average on the six filed US quarters yields only two usable ratios, 1.0017 for 2025 Q3 and 0.9979 for 2025 Q4 - both within 0.2 points of one, and neither quarter label repeats, so window-to-window spread cannot even be measured. On the ten-quarter consolidated revenue series the same method gives Q3 factors of 0.9857 and 0.9694 and Q4 factors of 0.9934 and 1.0336: the largest signal is about 2.2 points and the Q4 window-to-window spread is 4.0 points, so spread exceeds signal. No seasonality is applied.
- Management said US restaurant Marketplace GOV growth accelerated slightly in Q2 2026 and that DashPass members placed roughly 75% of Total Orders in the US grocery and retail categories, but published no US revenue, order or margin figure to attach to either statement, so neither is an input here.
- The 20.52% basis margin is consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $914m over consolidated revenue of $4,454m. DoorDash discloses no geographic profitability at all, so the same rate is applied to both lines: consolidated Adjusted EBITDA reconciles exactly at the basis quarter and only the forward mix is affected. The higher US terminal margin is a judgement about the advertising-rich, scaled half, not a disclosure.
International
Growth pathWolt, Deliveroo and the rest of the non-US marketplaces across more than 40 countries. $997m of revenue in the basis quarter, 22.4% of the group. The 119% year-on-year increase is overwhelmingly inorganic - Deliveroo closed on 2 October 2025, so it is in the numerator and absent from the base - which is why this line is driven off the sequential path, +2.9% in 2026 Q1 and +7.0% in 2026 Q2, rather than off any year-on-year rate.
Latest: $1.97B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $376M |
| 2025Q2 | $455M |
| 2025Q3 | $520M |
| 2025Q4 | $906M |
| 2026Q1 | $932M |
| 2026Q2 | $997M |
| 2026Q3E | $1.04B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.08B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.13B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.17B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.26B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.31B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.35B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.40B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.45B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.49B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.54B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.70B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.80B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.86B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.91B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.97B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Deliveroo closed on 2 October 2025. The 119% year-on-year international growth rate is not a run rate and is not extrapolated here; the driver is set off the sequential path until the acquisition laps in 2026 Q4.
- ASEASONAL, derived. Ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average on the six filed international quarters gives 0.8205 for 2025 Q3 and 1.1751 for 2025 Q4. That 35-point swing is the Deliveroo close moving through the moving-average window, not a season: it is a one-off level shift observed once, which cannot be separated from a seasonal factor on a single observation. No quarter label repeats, so the window-to-window spread is unmeasurable and by construction at least as large as the apparent signal. No seasonality is applied.
- Management's only quantified international statements in the Q2 2026 materials are relative - Wolt month-3 and month-6 cohort order rates rose year on year while unit economics improved substantially, and Deliveroo year-on-year MAU and Total Orders growth accelerated. No international revenue, order or margin figure is attached to either, so none is modelled.
- No international Adjusted EBITDA is published. The basis margin is the consolidated 20.52%, which almost certainly overstates this line; the terminal margin is set five points under the US to reflect management's improving-unit-economics language without inventing a number. Long-lived assets outside the United States were $375m at 31 December 2025, of which $173m in Finland - the only geographic balance-sheet split DoorDash files.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 financial outlook
- Aug 5, 2026 In H2 2026, we expect Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV to follow a similar pattern to H2 2025, with a Q/Q increase in Q3 2026 followed by a Q/Q decline in Q4 2026.
- Aug 5, 2026 2026 year-end timing for merchant payments compared to the end of 2025 is expected to reduce reported 2026 Free Cash Flow by between $700 million and $800 million.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Xu case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Xu column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter, autonomy and platform
- Aug 5, 2026 we expect Dot to deliver a high single-digit percentage of orders in our largest test market by the end of the year
- Aug 5, 2026 We expect to begin seeing benefits from our new global technology platform once it is fully rolled out, which we currently expect to be in the first half of 2027.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $17.26B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $29.92B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $8.22B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 18.0x |
| Terminal value | $147.97B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $91.88B |
| Enterprise value | $109.14B |
| Net cash | $3.47B |
| Equity value | $112.60B |
| Shares | 0.43B |
| Fair value per share | $259.88 |
| Against the current price of $231.89 | +12% |
Exit on Adjusted EBITDA at 18x, roughly 40% below the 31.0x trailing multiple DoorDash carries at the $236.93 close on an enterprise value of $99.2bn against $3,202m of trailing Adjusted EBITDA. The de-rating reflects growth decaying from 36% year on year to high single digits by the horizon. The 4.0x exit revenue multiple is a documented cross-check only and is not used: the engine takes the EBITDA basis whenever it is set. No peer trading multiple was independently verified in the research pass, so none is quoted.
Read the other way round: at $231.89 the market is paying 15.6x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Year-end merchant payment timing
2026 Q4 → 2026 Q4DoorDash guides that 2026 year-end merchant payment timing against the end of 2025 reduces reported 2026 Free Cash Flow by $700-800m. It is booked here at the $750m midpoint as a single 2026 Q4 cash outflow because it never touches Adjusted EBITDA and lands entirely on the cash half of the Rule of 40 score. Whether it reverses into 2027 is not disclosed, so no reversal is modelled - the conservative reading.
The projected path
| Quarter | United States | International | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $3.56B | $1.04B | $4.60B | +34% | $1.07B | $207M | $763M | +50 | $745M |
| 2026 Q4E | $3.67B | $1.08B | $4.76B | +20% | $1.14B | $966M | $154M | +23 | $147M |
| 2027 Q1E | $3.78B | $1.13B | $4.91B | +22% | $1.21B | $225M | $863M | +39 | $804M |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.89B | $1.17B | $5.06B | +14% | $1.27B | $234M | $910M | +32 | $827M |
| 2027 Q3E | $4.00B | $1.22B | $5.21B | +13% | $1.33B | $243M | $954M | +31 | $847M |
| 2027 Q4E | $4.10B | $1.26B | $5.36B | +13% | $1.39B | $252M | $997M | +31 | $865M |
| 2028 Q1E | $4.21B | $1.31B | $5.52B | +13% | $1.44B | $261M | $1.04B | +31 | $880M |
| 2028 Q2E | $4.33B | $1.35B | $5.68B | +12% | $1.50B | $270M | $1.08B | +31 | $892M |
| 2028 Q3E | $4.44B | $1.40B | $5.84B | +12% | $1.55B | $279M | $1.12B | +31 | $903M |
| 2028 Q4E | $4.55B | $1.45B | $6.00B | +12% | $1.60B | $288M | $1.16B | +31 | $913M |
| 2029 Q1E | $4.67B | $1.49B | $6.16B | +12% | $1.66B | $297M | $1.20B | +31 | $921M |
| 2029 Q2E | $4.78B | $1.54B | $6.33B | +11% | $1.71B | $306M | $1.24B | +31 | $928M |
| 2029 Q3E | $4.90B | $1.59B | $6.49B | +11% | $1.76B | $315M | $1.27B | +31 | $934M |
| 2029 Q4E | $5.02B | $1.64B | $6.67B | +11% | $1.82B | $325M | $1.31B | +31 | $940M |
| 2030 Q1E | $5.14B | $1.70B | $6.84B | +11% | $1.87B | $334M | $1.35B | +31 | $944M |
| 2030 Q2E | $5.27B | $1.75B | $7.02B | +11% | $1.92B | $343M | $1.39B | +31 | $948M |
| 2030 Q3E | $5.40B | $1.80B | $7.20B | +11% | $1.97B | $353M | $1.43B | +31 | $951M |
| 2030 Q4E | $5.53B | $1.86B | $7.38B | +11% | $2.03B | $363M | $1.46B | +31 | $954M |
| 2031 Q1E | $5.66B | $1.91B | $7.57B | +11% | $2.08B | $373M | $1.50B | +31 | $957M |
| 2031 Q2E | $5.79B | $1.97B | $7.76B | +11% | $2.14B | $383M | $1.54B | +31 | $959M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, corporate, valuation, scenarios | — | Initial model, built on the 2026 Q2 basis quarter from the verified research brief. Two verticals on the only revenue disaggregation DoorDash files - United States and International - both on growth drivers, because no geographic order, Marketplace GOV or margin figure exists to drive anything else. |