CRWD · Forward model · Management target case

The Management target case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-31

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

CrowdStrike reports one segment. The only revenue split it publishes is subscription against professional services, and both lines here are reported figures for every quarter shown - nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated. The endpoint, cloud, identity, Next-Gen SIEM and AI module framing carries no disclosed revenue and deliberately appears nowhere in the verticals. What is ours: every margin, every capex intensity, the corporate overhead share and the tax rate, because CrowdStrike allocates no operating expense, depreciation or capex to the revenue split. The subscription line is driven off installed ARR because the company has published no subscription customer count since fiscal 2024, so a customers-times-ARPU construction would have to invent its own denominator. Share count is held flat, so roughly 2% a year of net dilution from stock compensation is charged nowhere.

CRWD forward model

Horizon

Fair value per share $94.21 -56% against $213.10

Terminal-year revenue $11.12B last four projected quarters

Enterprise value $94.08B $11.19B explicit + $82.89B terminal

Vertical contributions at a glance

The stated $10 billion of fiscal 2031 ARR, priced with the long-term margin model applied. It lands BELOW the base case, and that is the finding: reaching $10 billion by fiscal 2031 asks less of net new ARR than the current run rate already delivers, so hitting the target is not the bull case - it is a deceleration. THE DELTA IS NOW STALE: -1.24% a quarter was solved on the old, smaller ARR base and on nineteen quarters to the target date; on the new basis it implies about $11.1 billion of fiscal 2031 ARR, and roughly -1.82% would be needed to land on $10 billion. The delta was left alone because a roll-forward does not move scenario deltas, so this scenario currently prices a target 11% above the one it is named for.

CRWD REVENUE MODEL

Latest: $2.90B (2032Q2E)

Period	Value
2024Q2	$732M
2024Q3	$786M
2024Q4	$845M
2025Q1	$921M
2025Q2	$964M
2025Q3	$1.01B
2025Q4	$1.06B
2026Q1	$1.10B
2026Q2	$1.17B
2026Q3	$1.23B
2026Q4	$1.31B
2027Q1	$1.39B
2027Q2	$1.47B
2027Q3E	$1.51B
2027Q4E	$1.57B
2028Q1E	$1.64B
2028Q2E	$1.71B
2028Q3E	$1.78B
2028Q4E	$1.85B
2029Q1E	$1.92B
2029Q2E	$1.99B
2029Q3E	$2.06B
2029Q4E	$2.13B
2030Q1E	$2.21B
2030Q2E	$2.28B
2030Q3E	$2.36B
2030Q4E	$2.43B
2031Q1E	$2.51B
2031Q2E	$2.58B
2031Q3E	$2.66B
2031Q4E	$2.74B
2032Q1E	$2.82B
2032Q2E	$2.90B

Scenarios

Where each case comes from

Bear case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

The fiscal 2027 guide is the thing that has to hold

Aug 26, 2026 Increases FY27 net new ARR growth guidance by 630 basis points to 34% year-over-year growth at the midpoint

Bull case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025

Sep 20, 2025 reiterated its long-term goal of reaching $10 billion in subscription ARR by fiscal 2031

Management target case — primary sources

The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Management target column is what happens if they are taken at face value.

Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025

Sep 20, 2025 reiterated its long-term goal of reaching $10 billion in subscription ARR by fiscal 2031

Long-term target operating model

Mar 3, 2026 subscription gross margins of 82-85%, operating margins of 28-32%, and free cash flow margins of 34-38%

Valuation

From cash flow to fair value

Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters	$11.19B
Terminal-year revenue	$11.12B
Terminal-year EBITDA	$5.24B
Exit multiple, on revenue	12.0x
Terminal value	$133.50B
Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes	$82.89B
Share of enterprise value from the terminal	88%
Enterprise value	$94.08B
Net cash	$4.27B
Equity value	$98.35B
Shares	1.04B
Fair value per share	$94.21
Against the deployed price of $213.10, as of Sep 5, 2026	-56%

10% on a profitable, cash-generative large-cap with $3.8B of net cash and no financing need. 12x terminal revenue on a 35% free-cash-flow margin is about 34x cash flow - a mature compounder's multiple, not a hypergrowth one.

Read the other way round: at $213.10 the market is paying 30.0x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.

Quarter by quarter

The projected path

Quarter	Subscription	Professional services	Revenue	YoY	EBITDA	Capex	FCF	R40	PV of FCF
2027 Q3E	$1.44B	$71M	$1.51B	+22%	$611M	$92M	$441M	+51	$431M
2027 Q4E	$1.50B	$72M	$1.57B	+21%	$649M	$94M	$471M	+51	$449M
2028 Q1E	$1.57B	$72M	$1.64B	+18%	$686M	$96M	$502M	+49	$467M
2028 Q2E	$1.64B	$72M	$1.71B	+16%	$725M	$99M	$532M	+47	$484M
2028 Q3E	$1.71B	$73M	$1.78B	+18%	$763M	$101M	$563M	+50	$499M
2028 Q4E	$1.78B	$73M	$1.85B	+17%	$802M	$104M	$593M	+50	$514M
2029 Q1E	$1.85B	$73M	$1.92B	+17%	$841M	$106M	$624M	+49	$528M
2029 Q2E	$1.92B	$73M	$1.99B	+16%	$880M	$109M	$655M	+49	$542M
2029 Q3E	$1.99B	$73M	$2.06B	+16%	$920M	$112M	$687M	+49	$554M
2029 Q4E	$2.06B	$73M	$2.13B	+15%	$959M	$115M	$718M	+49	$566M
2030 Q1E	$2.13B	$73M	$2.21B	+15%	$999M	$117M	$750M	+49	$577M
2030 Q2E	$2.21B	$74M	$2.28B	+15%	$1.04B	$120M	$781M	+49	$587M
2030 Q3E	$2.28B	$74M	$2.36B	+14%	$1.08B	$124M	$813M	+49	$597M
2030 Q4E	$2.36B	$74M	$2.43B	+14%	$1.12B	$127M	$845M	+49	$606M
2031 Q1E	$2.43B	$74M	$2.51B	+14%	$1.16B	$130M	$878M	+49	$614M
2031 Q2E	$2.51B	$73M	$2.58B	+13%	$1.20B	$133M	$910M	+49	$622M
2031 Q3E	$2.59B	$73M	$2.66B	+13%	$1.25B	$137M	$943M	+48	$629M
2031 Q4E	$2.67B	$73M	$2.74B	+13%	$1.29B	$140M	$976M	+48	$636M
2032 Q1E	$2.75B	$73M	$2.82B	+13%	$1.33B	$144M	$1.01B	+48	$642M
2032 Q2E	$2.83B	$73M	$2.90B	+12%	$1.37B	$147M	$1.04B	+48	$647M

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Track record

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.

Date	Fair value then	Note
2026-08-21	$103.72	First build, on the fiscal 2027 first-quarter basis and five days before the second-quarter print.
2026-08-31	$116.20	Rolled from the fiscal 2027 first-quarter basis to the second, the quarter ended 31 July 2026 and reported 26 August. Both verticals took their reported figures - subscription $1,400,291k, professional services $70,606k - and they sum to the reported $1,470,897k of total revenue to the dollar; nothing was apportioned and nothing estimated. ARR moved to $5,841.4M (derived as the $5,508.6M the Q1 10-Q disclosed plus the $332.8M of disclosed net new ARR, because the July 10-Q was not filed yet) and the quarterly build to the $345.0M the Q3 guide implies. Utilisation was re-solved to 93.83% so the first projected quarter reproduces the Q3 revenue guide midpoint, which is the same method the first build used; it lands $1,526.2M against a $1,523.2-1,529.2M guide, a residual of -0.01%, and the fiscal 2027 full year lands at $5,996.6M, 0.07% under the $5,991.1-6,011.1M guide midpoint and inside the range. Shares moved to the 1,044 million weighted diluted count in the FY2027 guidance table, net cash to $4,267,631k on the model's existing definition (cash and equivalents less long-term debt, strategic investments excluded - the old $3,806,958k reproduces exactly as 4,552,801 less 745,843), price to the 227.96 close. DELIBERATELY NOT CHANGED, and each of these is a tension a future revision has to settle: net new ARR compounding at 3% a quarter, when net new ARR grew 51% year over year and the full-year guide was raised 630bp to +34% growth after a 520bp raise the quarter before; the 6.5% capex intensity, when capex quadrupled year over year to 8.5% of revenue; the 44% subscription EBITDA margin, when stock compensation and payroll taxes reached 27.1% of revenue and the GAAP operating line is still a loss; the management-target scenario's -1.24% delta, which on the new base implies $11.1B rather than $10B of fiscal 2031 ARR; and the utilisation calibration itself, which hard-codes roughly 1.9 points of guidance conservatism into all twenty quarters when the realised ratio is 95.9%.