CRWD · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
CrowdStrike reports one segment. The only revenue split it publishes is subscription against professional services, and both lines here are reported figures for every quarter shown - nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated. The endpoint, cloud, identity, Next-Gen SIEM and AI module framing carries no disclosed revenue and deliberately appears nowhere in the verticals. What is ours: every margin, every capex intensity, the corporate overhead share and the tax rate, because CrowdStrike allocates no operating expense, depreciation or capex to the revenue split. The subscription line is driven off installed ARR because the company has published no subscription customer count since fiscal 2024, so a customers-times-ARPU construction would have to invent its own denominator. Share count is held flat, so roughly 2% a year of net dilution from stock compensation is charged nowhere.
Net new ARR stops compounding and starts shrinking, the margin model stalls four points short of the stated range, and the multiple rerates to 8x revenue. This is what the premium costs if a single guide is missed.
Latest: $1.96B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $732M |
| 2024Q3 | $786M |
| 2024Q4 | $845M |
| 2025Q1 | $921M |
| 2025Q2 | $964M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.01B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.06B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.17B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.23B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.31B |
| 2027Q1 | $1.39B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.41B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.44B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.47B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.51B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.57B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.60B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.63B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.66B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.69B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.72B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.78B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.81B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.83B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.86B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.89B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.91B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.94B |
| 2032Q1E | $1.96B |
What drives each segment
Subscription
Capacity × utilisation × priceThe Falcon platform sold as recurring subscriptions, and 95% of revenue. What a quarter can earn is set by the annual recurring revenue already installed at the end of it: a dollar of ARR turns into a quarter of itself in a quarter. Growth is therefore net new ARR compounding on a base that renews at a 115% dollar-based net retention rate, which is why this line is modelled as installed capacity rather than as customers times a price CrowdStrike does not publish.
Latest: $1.91B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $690M |
| 2024Q3 | $733M |
| 2024Q4 | $796M |
| 2025Q1 | $872M |
| 2025Q2 | $918M |
| 2025Q3 | $963M |
| 2025Q4 | $1.01B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.05B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.17B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.24B |
| 2027Q1 | $1.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.34B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.38B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.41B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.44B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.48B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.51B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.54B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.57B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.60B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.63B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.78B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.80B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.83B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.86B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.89B |
| 2032Q1E | $1.91B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is subscription revenue as reported on the face of a CrowdStrike release. Nothing is apportioned and nothing is estimated.
- ARR is measured at period end while revenue accrues through the quarter, which is the whole job of the utilisation input: it has sat between 94.6% and 95.9% of a quarter of ending ARR for two years.
- CrowdStrike allocates no operating expense, depreciation or capex to the revenue split, so the margin and capex inputs on this line are ours and no disclosure tests them.
- Net new ARR is heavily fourth-quarter weighted and this projection carries no seasonality, so a constant build rate lands fiscal 2027 exit ARR about 2% below the guided range while hitting the revenue guide.
Professional services
Growth pathIncident response, proactive consulting and technical assessments. It is sold partly as a route into a subscription rather than for its own margin, it is excluded from ARR and from the dollar-based net retention rate, and it has been flat at roughly $65 million a quarter for six quarters.
Latest: $52M (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $42M |
| 2024Q3 | $53M |
| 2024Q4 | $49M |
| 2025Q1 | $49M |
| 2025Q2 | $46M |
| 2025Q3 | $47M |
| 2025Q4 | $50M |
| 2026Q1 | $53M |
| 2026Q2 | $66M |
| 2026Q3 | $66M |
| 2026Q4 | $63M |
| 2027Q1 | $65M |
| 2027Q2E | $64M |
| 2027Q3E | $64M |
| 2027Q4E | $64M |
| 2028Q1E | $63M |
| 2028Q2E | $62M |
| 2028Q3E | $62M |
| 2028Q4E | $61M |
| 2029Q1E | $61M |
| 2029Q2E | $60M |
| 2029Q3E | $59M |
| 2029Q4E | $59M |
| 2030Q1E | $58M |
| 2030Q2E | $57M |
| 2030Q3E | $56M |
| 2030Q4E | $56M |
| 2031Q1E | $55M |
| 2031Q2E | $54M |
| 2031Q3E | $53M |
| 2031Q4E | $53M |
| 2032Q1E | $52M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Reported on the face of every release alongside subscription, so this line needs no apportionment and carries no estimated quarter.
- Excluded from ARR and from the dollar-based net retention rate, which is exactly why it sits outside the subscription driver rather than inside it.
- Gross margin was 17% in the basis quarter and delivery headcount consumes the rest, so it is modelled as a break-even funnel rather than a profit centre.
- At 4.7% of revenue it cannot decide the answer. It is here so the consolidated line reconciles to what CrowdStrike actually reports.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The fiscal 2027 guide is the thing that has to hold
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025
Management target case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Management target column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025
Long-term target operating model
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $7.65B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $7.70B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $3.24B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $61.60B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $38.25B |
| Enterprise value | $45.90B |
| Net cash | $3.81B |
| Equity value | $49.70B |
| Diluted shares | 1.03B |
| Fair value per share | $48.26 |
| Against the current price of $190.34 | -75% |
10% on a profitable, cash-generative large-cap with $3.8B of net cash and no financing need. 12x terminal revenue on a 35% free-cash-flow margin is about 34x cash flow - a mature compounder's multiple, not a hypergrowth one.
Read the other way round: at $190.34 the market is paying 38.6x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Subscription | Professional services | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q2E | $1.34B | $64M | $1.41B | +20% | $500M | $86M | $352M | +45 | $344M |
| 2027 Q3E | $1.38B | $64M | $1.44B | +17% | $522M | $86M | $370M | +42 | $353M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.41B | $64M | $1.47B | +13% | $543M | $86M | $388M | +39 | $361M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.44B | $63M | $1.51B | +9% | $563M | $87M | $405M | +36 | $368M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.48B | $62M | $1.54B | +9% | $583M | $87M | $421M | +37 | $374M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.51B | $62M | $1.57B | +9% | $602M | $88M | $437M | +37 | $379M |
| 2028 Q4E | $1.54B | $61M | $1.60B | +9% | $621M | $89M | $453M | +37 | $383M |
| 2029 Q1E | $1.57B | $61M | $1.63B | +8% | $640M | $89M | $468M | +37 | $387M |
| 2029 Q2E | $1.60B | $60M | $1.66B | +8% | $658M | $90M | $483M | +37 | $389M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.63B | $59M | $1.69B | +8% | $675M | $91M | $497M | +37 | $392M |
| 2029 Q4E | $1.66B | $59M | $1.72B | +7% | $693M | $91M | $511M | +37 | $393M |
| 2030 Q1E | $1.69B | $58M | $1.75B | +7% | $709M | $92M | $525M | +37 | $394M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.72B | $57M | $1.78B | +7% | $726M | $93M | $538M | +37 | $395M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.75B | $56M | $1.81B | +7% | $742M | $94M | $551M | +37 | $394M |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.78B | $56M | $1.83B | +7% | $757M | $95M | $563M | +37 | $394M |
| 2031 Q1E | $1.80B | $55M | $1.86B | +6% | $773M | $96M | $575M | +37 | $393M |
| 2031 Q2E | $1.83B | $54M | $1.89B | +6% | $788M | $97M | $587M | +37 | $392M |
| 2031 Q3E | $1.86B | $53M | $1.91B | +6% | $802M | $98M | $599M | +37 | $390M |
| 2031 Q4E | $1.89B | $53M | $1.94B | +6% | $816M | $99M | $610M | +37 | $388M |
| 2032 Q1E | $1.91B | $52M | $1.96B | +6% | $830M | $100M | $621M | +37 | $386M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | all | $103.72 | First build, on the fiscal 2027 first-quarter basis and five days before the second-quarter print. |