CRWD · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
CrowdStrike reports one segment. The only revenue split it publishes is subscription against professional services, and both lines here are reported figures for every quarter shown - nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated. The endpoint, cloud, identity, Next-Gen SIEM and AI module framing carries no disclosed revenue and deliberately appears nowhere in the verticals. What is ours: every margin, every capex intensity, the corporate overhead share and the tax rate, because CrowdStrike allocates no operating expense, depreciation or capex to the revenue split. The subscription line is driven off installed ARR because the company has published no subscription customer count since fiscal 2024, so a customers-times-ARPU construction would have to invent its own denominator. Share count is held flat, so roughly 2% a year of net dilution from stock compensation is charged nowhere.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $2.24B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $732M |
| 2024Q3 | $786M |
| 2024Q4 | $845M |
| 2025Q1 | $921M |
| 2025Q2 | $964M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.01B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.06B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.17B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.23B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.31B |
| 2027Q1 | $1.39B |
| 2027Q2 | $1.47B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.49B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.53B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.58B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.62B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.67B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.71B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.75B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.80B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.84B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.88B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.92B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.95B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.99B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.03B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.07B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.10B |
| 2031Q3E | $2.14B |
| 2031Q4E | $2.18B |
| 2032Q1E | $2.21B |
| 2032Q2E | $2.24B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The fiscal 2027 guide is the thing that has to hold
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025
Management target case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Management target column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Fal.Con investor briefing, September 2025
Long-term target operating model
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 10.0% a year with an exit multiple of 8.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $8.48B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $8.77B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $3.69B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $70.16B |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $43.56B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 84% |
| Enterprise value | $52.04B |
| Net cash | $4.27B |
| Equity value | $56.31B |
| Shares | 1.04B |
| Fair value per share | $53.94 |
| Against the deployed price of $264.75, as of | −80% |
10% on a profitable, cash-generative large-cap with $3.8B of net cash and no financing need. 12x terminal revenue on a 35% free-cash-flow margin is about 34x cash flow - a mature compounder's multiple, not a hypergrowth one.
Read the other way round: at $264.75 the market is paying 48.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Subscription | Professional services | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q3E | $1.42B | $70M | $1.49B | +21% | $529M | $91M | $373M | +46 | $364M |
| 2027 Q4E | $1.46B | $70M | $1.53B | +18% | $556M | $92M | $394M | +43 | $376M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.51B | $69M | $1.58B | +14% | $582M | $93M | $416M | +40 | $387M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.56B | $69M | $1.62B | +10% | $607M | $94M | $436M | +37 | $397M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.60B | $68M | $1.67B | +12% | $632M | $95M | $457M | +39 | $405M |
| 2028 Q4E | $1.64B | $67M | $1.71B | +12% | $657M | $96M | $477M | +39 | $413M |
| 2029 Q1E | $1.69B | $67M | $1.75B | +11% | $681M | $97M | $496M | +39 | $420M |
| 2029 Q2E | $1.73B | $66M | $1.80B | +11% | $704M | $98M | $515M | +39 | $426M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.77B | $65M | $1.84B | +10% | $727M | $99M | $534M | +39 | $431M |
| 2029 Q4E | $1.81B | $65M | $1.88B | +10% | $750M | $101M | $552M | +39 | $435M |
| 2030 Q1E | $1.85B | $64M | $1.92B | +9% | $772M | $102M | $570M | +39 | $438M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.89B | $63M | $1.95B | +9% | $794M | $103M | $587M | +39 | $441M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.93B | $62M | $1.99B | +9% | $815M | $105M | $604M | +39 | $443M |
| 2030 Q4E | $1.97B | $61M | $2.03B | +8% | $835M | $106M | $620M | +39 | $444M |
| 2031 Q1E | $2.01B | $61M | $2.07B | +8% | $856M | $107M | $636M | +39 | $445M |
| 2031 Q2E | $2.04B | $60M | $2.10B | +8% | $875M | $108M | $652M | +39 | $445M |
| 2031 Q3E | $2.08B | $59M | $2.14B | +7% | $895M | $110M | $667M | +39 | $445M |
| 2031 Q4E | $2.12B | $58M | $2.18B | +7% | $914M | $111M | $682M | +38 | $444M |
| 2032 Q1E | $2.15B | $57M | $2.21B | +7% | $932M | $113M | $697M | +38 | $443M |
| 2032 Q2E | $2.19B | $57M | $2.24B | +7% | $950M | $114M | $711M | +38 | $441M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | $103.72 | First build, on the fiscal 2027 first-quarter basis and five days before the second-quarter print. |
| 2026-08-31 | $116.20 | Rolled from the fiscal 2027 first-quarter basis to the second, the quarter ended 31 July 2026 and reported 26 August. Both verticals took their reported figures - subscription $1,400,291k, professional services $70,606k - and they sum to the reported $1,470,897k of total revenue to the dollar; nothing was apportioned and nothing estimated. ARR moved to $5,841.4M (derived as the $5,508.6M the Q1 10-Q disclosed plus the $332.8M of disclosed net new ARR, because the July 10-Q was not filed yet) and the quarterly build to the $345.0M the Q3 guide implies. Utilisation was re-solved to 93.83% so the first projected quarter reproduces the Q3 revenue guide midpoint, which is the same method the first build used; it lands $1,526.2M against a $1,523.2-1,529.2M guide, a residual of -0.01%, and the fiscal 2027 full year lands at $5,996.6M, 0.07% under the $5,991.1-6,011.1M guide midpoint and inside the range. Shares moved to the 1,044 million weighted diluted count in the FY2027 guidance table, net cash to $4,267,631k on the model's existing definition (cash and equivalents less long-term debt, strategic investments excluded - the old $3,806,958k reproduces exactly as 4,552,801 less 745,843), price to the 227.96 close. DELIBERATELY NOT CHANGED, and each of these is a tension a future revision has to settle: net new ARR compounding at 3% a quarter, when net new ARR grew 51% year over year and the full-year guide was raised 630bp to +34% growth after a 520bp raise the quarter before; the 6.5% capex intensity, when capex quadrupled year over year to 8.5% of revenue; the 44% subscription EBITDA margin, when stock compensation and payroll taxes reached 27.1% of revenue and the GAAP operating line is still a loss; the management-target scenario's -1.24% delta, which on the new base implies $11.1B rather than $10B of fiscal 2031 ARR; and the utilisation calibration itself, which hard-codes roughly 1.9 points of guidance conservatism into all twenty quarters when the realised ratio is 95.9%. |