COST · Forward model · Merchandise net sales · Bull case
What has to happen in Merchandise net sales
Model as of
This page changes Merchandise net sales inside the complete COST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Merchandise net sales
Costco sells merchandise at a deliberately capped mark-up, so the operating constraint is delivered warehouse capacity times what each warehouse turns over. Revenue is warehouses open times net sales per warehouse. Unit growth is a slow, capital-bound, disclosed number - 24 to 29 net new clubs a year, 26 planned for FY2026 - and the volatile part is comparable sales, which the company itself decomposes into ticket, frequency, gasoline price and currency.
Latest: $124.26B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $49.42B |
| 2022Q2 | $50.94B |
| 2022Q3 | $51.61B |
| 2022Q4 | $70.76B |
| 2023Q1 | $53.44B |
| 2023Q2 | $54.24B |
| 2023Q3 | $52.60B |
| 2023Q4 | $77.43B |
| 2024Q1 | $56.72B |
| 2024Q2 | $57.33B |
| 2024Q3 | $57.39B |
| 2024Q4 | $78.19B |
| 2025Q1 | $60.98B |
| 2025Q2 | $62.53B |
| 2025Q3 | $61.97B |
| 2025Q4 | $84.43B |
| 2026Q1 | $65.98B |
| 2026Q2 | $68.24B |
| 2026Q3 | $69.15B |
| 2026Q4E | $95.98B |
| 2027Q1E | $75.00B |
| 2027Q2E | $77.59B |
| 2027Q3E | $77.86B |
| 2027Q4E | $108.05B |
| 2028Q1E | $84.41B |
| 2028Q2E | $87.31B |
| 2028Q3E | $87.60B |
| 2028Q4E | $121.54B |
| 2029Q1E | $94.94B |
| 2029Q2E | $98.18B |
| 2029Q3E | $98.49B |
| 2029Q4E | $136.63B |
| 2030Q1E | $106.70B |
| 2030Q2E | $110.33B |
| 2030Q3E | $110.66B |
| 2030Q4E | $153.48B |
| 2031Q1E | $119.85B |
| 2031Q2E | $123.90B |
| 2031Q3E | $124.26B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 2.949% EBITDA margin is derived, not disclosed. Consolidated EBITDA of $3,412m (operating income $2,815m plus $597m of D&A) less the $1,373m of membership fees carried at full flow-through leaves $2,039m on $69,154m of net sales. It is the residual half of the flow-through convention described in the model notes.
- All consolidated capex sits on this vertical: the membership line consumes no property, plant or equipment of its own. Capex intensity of 2.18% is the company's stated FY2026 plan of approximately $6.5bn over modelled FY2026 net sales of about $298bn.
- Costco discloses net sales by merchandise category but NOT by geography. The segment note reports TOTAL revenue per geography, which already contains membership fees, so no geographic net-sales split is constructible and none is attempted here.
- Gasoline added 221 basis points and currency 104 basis points to the quarter's 11.6% net-sales growth, both quantified by the company. The base case carries neither forward as a tailwind nor reverses them; the bear case reverses them.