COST · Forward model · Bull case

The Bull case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Costco's income statement carries exactly two revenue lines - net sales and membership fees - and they sum to reported total revenue in all 19 quarters of history here, to the dollar. That is the split this model uses. Costco also reports three geographic segments, but the segment note gives TOTAL revenue per geography with membership fees already inside it and splits neither line, so a geographic model would have to abandon both operational drivers; it is not built. One convention crosses the disclosure line. Membership fees are carried at 100% EBITDA flow-through and net sales take the residual 2.949%. Neither number is disclosed: Costco allocates no cost between the two lines. The pair is constructed so consolidated EBITDA reconciles exactly to the reported $3,412m in the basis quarter, and if one side is changed the other must move with it. On this convention the fee line is about 2% of revenue and about 40% of EBITDA, so it drives the valuation far harder than its size. Seasonality here is mostly fiscal-calendar mechanics rather than consumer behaviour. Costco's Q1 to Q3 are 12 weeks and Q4 is 16, so the Q4 factors of 1.226 and 1.234 mostly count weeks; dividing them out leaves per-week residuals within about 1.5% of flat. The factors are indexed to Costco's OWN fiscal quarter labels, the same labels the site's revenue series uses, so seasonality position 4 is the 16-week quarter ending in late August, not a calendar holiday quarter. Costco issues no revenue, margin or EPS guidance. The only quantified forward statements anywhere in the filings or on the call are FY2026 capex of approximately $6.5bn and 26 net new warehouses. Nothing in this model is company guidance, and the consensus figures quoted in the scenarios are third-party aggregates. Consensus EPS for Costco is also not on the company's GAAP basis - it excludes the discrete stock-compensation tax benefits Costco discloses - so it is never paired with a GAAP figure here. Known limitation: FY2028 is a 53-week fiscal year whose Q4 runs 17 weeks. A four-factor seasonality driver cannot express a one-off extra week, so FY2028 Q4 is understated by roughly 4.5% and FY2029 Q4's year-on-year growth is overstated by about the same.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.