COST · Forward model · Membership fees · Bull case
What has to happen in Membership fees
Model as of
This page changes Membership fees inside the complete COST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Membership fees
Basis quarter$1.37B
Final quarter$2.33B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix2%
A recurring annual fee recognised ratably over the twelve-month term, from a paid base that renews at 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% worldwide. Revenue is paid members times the blended annual fee. It is about 2% of revenue and, on the flow-through convention this model uses, roughly 40% of EBITDA - which is why the valuation is far more sensitive to this line than its size suggests.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$1.72B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.33B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.35B
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.37B
Reported
Gold Star (individual)Business and business affiliatesExecutive upgrade
Subscribers
82.9M
55.8% of a 148.5M addressable base
82.9m paid members at 10 May 2026, from the 10-Q membership table; the CFO gave the same figure, up 4.1%.
Addressable subscribers
148.5M
the S-curve ceiling
148.5m total cardholders, disclosed in the same table. Paid members are 55.8% of them.
Net adds
0/qtr
ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling
0/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU
$5.98/mo
drifting +0.9% per quarter, floor $0.00
$5.98/month is the derived $71.81 blended annual fee: deseasonalised fees of $1,488m annualised over 82.9m members.
Non-subscriber revenue
$0/qtr
growing 0.0% per quarter
Zero. Membership fees are a single disclosed income-statement line with no other component.
Membership fees
Latest: $2.33B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $946M |
| 2022Q2 | $967M |
| 2022Q3 | $984M |
| 2022Q4 | $1.33B |
| 2023Q1 | $1.00B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.03B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.04B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.51B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.08B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.11B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.12B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.17B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.19B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.24B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.72B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.33B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.35B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.37B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.89B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.45B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.48B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.53B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.10B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.61B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.65B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.70B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.33B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.79B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.83B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.89B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.59B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.99B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.03B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.10B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.88B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.26B |
| 2031Q3E | $2.33B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 100% flow-through is a convention, not a disclosure. Fee revenue carries no merchandise cost, and the member-service labour that supports it sits inside warehouse SG&A, which Costco does not allocate. This convention and the 2.949% residual on net sales are two halves of one choice: together they reproduce consolidated EBITDA of $3,412m exactly.
- Capex is zero here by construction. Every dollar of property, plant and equipment is carried on the net-sales vertical, so the two lines do not double-count the warehouse estate the fee base depends on.
- The base case does NOT assume another fee increase. The September 2024 increase to $65 Gold Star and $130 Executive was about 25% of membership-fee growth in the quarter, down from 35% year to date, and the company says it laps out. Stripping it leaves 3.8% a year of fee-per-member growth, which is what the ARPU drift carries. The trailing deseasonalised rate of 2.54% a quarter is not carried forward because a quarter of it is about to disappear.
- Both renewal rates fell year on year - U.S. and Canada from 92.7% to 92.2%, worldwide from 90.2% to 89.7% - which the company attributes to memberships sold online and through digital promotions entering the calculation. That risk is expressed in the bear case, not in the base attach glide.