CBRS · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 18 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Built on GAAP. Cerebras reports one segment; the two lines here are the disaggregation of revenue shown on the face of the statements of operations every quarter, and they reconcile to reported consolidated revenue with zero difference in all ten quarters, from $66.6M in 2024 Q1 to $180.1M in 2026 Q2. Only 2026 Q1 is estimated, and it is confirmed twice: six-month less June-quarter arithmetic and the Q1 release's own $110.6M and $82.8M. Nothing else is apportioned. All company guidance is non-GAAP core and core revenue exceeded GAAP revenue by $29.8M in the basis quarter, so every guided figure used here was converted through the disclosed bridge - GAAP equals core plus pass-through less customer-warrant amortisation, which was $44.3M in the June quarter and is expected in a $40-55M quarterly band. What is ours and not the company's: the growth rates and their decay, both margin glides, the capex glide, corporate overhead, the tax rate, the discount rate and the exit multiple. Three choices need stating plainly. First, corporate overhead is a single 20% of revenue for the whole horizon because the engine has no overhead glide; that reproduces roughly today's $118.8M of quarterly core operating expense at 2027 revenue, but it understates the 2026 loss, where actual core opex is 57% of core revenue. Second, valuation uses the 237,564,041 shares outstanding at 2026-08-05 and holds them flat, so the 76.0M of disclosed potential shares - 32% more - are charged nowhere. Third, the September quarter projects high: guidance implies core revenue only 2.4% above June and then a 25% step in December as capacity tranches go live, and a single decaying growth rate cannot be flat and then step, so this model is calibrated to the annual totals instead: the September quarter projects $253M against a GAAP-equivalent guide of about $190M, while FY2026 lands at $970M against a core guide midpoint of $885M. The 2026 Q2 GAAP net loss of $450.5M is dominated by $377.0M of IPO-triggered stock compensation and is not a run rate; adjusted EBITDA was $(53.1)M. Net cash of $7.69bn is cash, restricted cash and investments of $8.61bn less the $918.2M Working Capital Loan; it includes $684.7M of restricted cash and excludes $568.8M of on-balance-sheet operating lease liabilities and about $1.5bn of undiscounted payments on datacentre leases not yet commenced. This model burns about $1.7bn of cumulative free cash flow and spends $9.7bn of capex over the horizon, and charges no interest, no stock compensation and no dilution against any of it.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 18 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.