BRK-B · Forward model · Manufacturing · Bear case
What has to happen in Manufacturing
Model as of
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Manufacturing
Basis quarter$22.57B
Final quarter$25.58B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix25%
Industrial, building and consumer products — Precision Castparts, Lubrizol, Marmon, IMC, Clayton Homes, Shaw, Forest River, Duracell and the rest, plus the OxyChem business acquired on 2 January 2026. $22,568M of revenue and $4,117M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter, the largest earnings line among the seven verticals.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$20.05B
Reported
2025 Q4
$19.70B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$20.67B
Reported
2026 Q2
$22.57B
Reported
Industrial productsBuilding productsConsumer products
Sequential growth
+1.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.7%
1.3% a quarter. TTM growth was 6.95%, but part of the 13.0% year-on-year quarter is OxyChem, not organic.
Manufacturing
Latest: $25.58B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $18.42B |
| 2022Q2 | $19.77B |
| 2022Q3 | $19.00B |
| 2022Q4 | $18.59B |
| 2023Q1 | $18.29B |
| 2023Q2 | $19.10B |
| 2023Q3 | $19.17B |
| 2023Q4 | $18.84B |
| 2024Q1 | $18.53B |
| 2024Q2 | $19.84B |
| 2024Q3 | $19.68B |
| 2024Q4 | $19.19B |
| 2025Q1 | $18.77B |
| 2025Q2 | $19.97B |
| 2025Q3 | $20.05B |
| 2025Q4 | $19.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $20.67B |
| 2026Q2 | $22.57B |
| 2026Q3E | $22.56B |
| 2026Q4E | $22.13B |
| 2027Q1E | $22.00B |
| 2027Q2E | $23.39B |
| 2027Q3E | $23.32B |
| 2027Q4E | $22.84B |
| 2028Q1E | $22.65B |
| 2028Q2E | $24.05B |
| 2028Q3E | $23.95B |
| 2028Q4E | $23.42B |
| 2029Q1E | $23.20B |
| 2029Q2E | $24.61B |
| 2029Q3E | $24.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $23.92B |
| 2030Q1E | $23.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $25.11B |
| 2030Q3E | $24.97B |
| 2030Q4E | $24.39B |
| 2031Q1E | $24.14B |
| 2031Q2E | $25.58B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONAL. Factors [0.9724, 1.0256, 1.0151, 0.9868], signal 0.0533 against a worst spread of 0.0266 — a 2.0x clear. The whole range is 5.3%, so this is a mild spring-and-summer building-products tilt rather than a retail season.
- 18.24% is the HIGHEST quarterly margin in the ten-quarter series and 163bp above the trailing-twelve-month 16.61%. Terminal is set to the TTM figure deliberately, so the margin glides DOWN from the basis quarter rather than holding a peak.
- Revenue rose 13.0% year on year and that must not be read as organic: OxyChem closed on 2 January 2026 for about $9.4 billion and had no 2025 comparative, and the industrial products group's revenue rose 27.3% in the quarter 'primarily attributable to business acquisitions'. The 1.3% opening sequential rate is set well below the trailing 6.95% for exactly this reason.
- Taylor Morrison closed on 24 JULY 2026 for approximately $6.8 billion at $72.50 a share — AFTER the basis quarter. It contributes nothing to any figure in this model and enters this vertical in 2026 Q3 with no history at all. It is in the bull case and nowhere else.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.