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What has to happen in Research fees

Model as of

This page changes Research fees inside the complete ABCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $20.60 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11M 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $58M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Phase 2 met both primary endpoints on 10 August 2026: 83% versus 33%, n=92, one 600 mg dose. This case is class expansion: a monthly injection taking share the daily NK3 oral did not, toward 250k treated-patient dollars (~$1B peak at $4,000 net). The engine shares one ceiling, so expansion is a revenue tilt, not a second patient cap. It does not move the 2030 Q1 start, invent a list price, or print 500k–1.5M patients. n=92 is not a commercial drug. It does not start Phase 3 for them.

Research fees

Basis quarter$4M
Final quarter$11M
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix4%

Discovery and access fees from partners. $3.901M in the basis quarter, 96% of revenue, down from $6.639M a year earlier. Partner-led programs with a downstream stake fell from 44 to 35. Jazz and Vertex add deferred cash, not this P&L line yet. Sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $9M Reported
2025 Q4 $8M Estimated
2026 Q1 $8M Reported
2026 Q2 $4M Reported
Technology access feesDiscovery research fees on partner programs
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% Q2/Q1 was −52%. 8% is Jazz/Vertex starting to hit P&L, not a rebound to the $8M quarter.
Research fees

Latest: $11M (2033Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $4M
2025Q2 $7M
2025Q3 $9M
2025Q4 $8M
2026Q1 $8M
2026Q2 $4M
2026Q3E $4M
2026Q4E $5M
2027Q1E $5M
2027Q2E $5M
2027Q3E $6M
2027Q4E $6M
2028Q1E $6M
2028Q2E $6M
2028Q3E $7M
2028Q4E $7M
2029Q1E $7M
2029Q2E $7M
2029Q3E $8M
2029Q4E $8M
2030Q1E $8M
2030Q2E $8M
2030Q3E $8M
2030Q4E $9M
2031Q1E $9M
2031Q2E $9M
2031Q3E $9M
2031Q4E $9M
2032Q1E $10M
2032Q2E $10M
2032Q3E $10M
2032Q4E $10M
2033Q1E $10M
2033Q2E $11M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not read −76% company revenue as a broken platform. Partner-led programs with a downstream stake fell from 44 to 35 by design, which is the plan working.
  • Jazz $84M and Vertex $28M are mostly deferred. Q2 P&L research fees are $3.9M. Do not add the upfronts to this line.
  • Company operating loss $62.8M is not this line's cost. Internal R&D sits in a corporate programme of $46M a quarter.
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