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NIO Joins Coverage With No Rule of 40 Score, Because It Publishes Cash Flow Twice a Year.

NIO joins coverage the day before its June-quarter print with gross margin repaired from 1.5% to 19.0% in twelve quarters — and no R40 score, because as a foreign private issuer it files a cash-flow statement only for the half year and the full year.

NIO joins the tracked set today, one day before it reports the June quarter. The board meeting that approves those results is on 1 September 2026, with the call at 8:00 a.m. US Eastern — the date is in the company's own 6-K of 20 August, not an estimate.

Its Rule of 40 card is empty, and that is a disclosure fact rather than a data gap we intend to close. NIO files with the SEC as a foreign private issuer: results arrive as a press release attached to a Form 6-K, and that release carries an income statement and a balance sheet but no statement of cash flows. The only cash-flow statements NIO publishes are the six-month one in its September interim 6-K and the full-year one in its 20-F. Two periods a year cannot be turned into twelve quarterly free-cash-flow points without inventing the split, so this page carries none. Revenue, earnings per ADS, gross margin, total assets and total debt are all quarterly and all filed.

What the twelve quarters do show

Every figure below is NIO's own US dollar convenience translation from the quarter's release, so the dollar column carries the renminbi-dollar move as well as the business. The growth column is calculated on the renminbi figures, which is how the company states it.

Quarter Revenue (US$) Revenue YoY (RMB) Gross margin Diluted EPS per ADS
2023 Q1 $1.55B 1.5% -$0.42
2023 Q2 $1.21B 1.0% -$0.51
2023 Q3 $2.61B 8.0% -$0.37
2023 Q4 $2.41B 7.5% -$0.45
2024 Q1 $1.37B -7.2% 4.9% -$0.36
2024 Q2 $2.40B +98.9% 9.7% -$0.34
2024 Q3 $2.66B -2.1% 10.8% -$0.36
2024 Q4 $2.70B +15.2% 11.7% -$0.47
2025 Q1 $1.66B +21.5% 7.6% -$0.45
2025 Q2 $2.65B +9.0% 10.0% -$0.32
2025 Q3 $3.06B +16.7% 13.9% -$0.21
2025 Q4 $4.95B +75.9% 17.5% +$0.01
2026 Q1 $3.70B +112.2% 19.0% -$0.03

Gross margin is the line that moved: 1.5% in the March 2023 quarter, 19.0% in the March 2026 quarter, without a single reversal in the last five quarters. The December 2025 quarter is the break in the series — RMB34,650.2 million of revenue, a RMB807.3 million profit from operations, and the first positive earnings per ADS in the window at RMB0.05, US$0.01.

It did not hold. The March 2026 quarter went back to a RMB308.8 million operating loss on a seasonal delivery drop to 83,465 vehicles from 124,807 in December, even though revenue was up 112.2% year over year and gross margin ticked up again. NIO guided the June quarter to 110,000 to 115,000 deliveries, which would be 52.7% to 59.6% growth. That is the number to read on 1 September, alongside whether the operating line went positive again.

What the cash line does say, at the resolution it exists

The half-year and full-year statements are not nothing. Operating cash flow was negative RMB7,849.2 million in 2024 and positive RMB2,992.6 million in 2025, the first positive year since 2021. Against that, capital expenditure was RMB9,534.7 million in 2024 and RMB6,630.7 million in 2025 — so free cash flow was negative in both years, by roughly RMB17.4 billion and RMB3.6 billion respectively. The gap narrowed by about 80% in one year, which is the same story the margin column tells, at a quarter of the resolution.

The balance sheet behind it: US$18.29 billion of total assets at 31 March 2026 against US$2.13 billion of borrowings, after NIO raised HK$4.03 billion in April 2025 and US$1.16 billion in September 2025 and retired the 2026 convertible notes at maturity in February 2026.

The thing that is not on any statement

NIO is the only volume carmaker that built its business around swapping the battery instead of charging it. As of 31 December 2025 it had 3,737 Power Swap Stations and had completed more than 96 million swaps. That network is the reason the capital expenditure line is what it is, and the reason the three-brand structure — NIO above, ONVO in the family-SUV middle, firefly in small cars — can share one piece of infrastructure. Whether it pays for itself is exactly the question the missing quarterly cash-flow statement would answer.

Sources: NIO's Form 6-K quarterly releases for 2023 Q1 through 2026 Q1, its 2025 Form 20-F, and the interim condensed financial statements furnished on Form 6-K on 10 September 2025.

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