Amazon's initial deliveries of Generac backup generators are "expected to total $2.4 billion in 2027 and 2028", Generac disclosed at 16:24 ET on 16 September. That averages $1.2 billion a year, about half of what Generac's Commercial & Industrial segment now sells annually. The same filing gives Amazon a warrant for up to 1,693,745 shares at $200.9266, vesting as it pays for generators "up to a total of $8 billion".
Generac closed at $175.11 before the filing and last traded after hours at $232.98, up 33.0%. CNBC called it an investment "worth as much as $8 billion". Exercising the whole warrant costs Amazon $340.3 million; the $8 billion is the payment ceiling that vests the shares.
$1.2 billion a year is 54% of the C&I segment's June-quarter pace
Generac gives no split by year, so:
- $2.4 billion ÷ 2 years = $1.2 billion a year.
- C&I segment sales were $556.5 million in the June quarter; × 4 = $2.23 billion.
- $1.2 billion ÷ $2.23 billion = 54%.
US$; Generac reported figures; the even split and every share are R40 arithmetic
| Base | Figure | $1.2B a year |
|---|---|---|
| Expected deliveries, 2027-28 | $2.40B | |
| Divided by 2 years | $1.20B | |
| C&I segment, Q2 2026 x 4 | $2.23B | 54% |
| C&I segment, H1 2026 x 2 | $2.13B | 56% |
| C&I product sales, 2025 | $1.46B | 82% |
| Net sales, 2025 | $4.21B | 29% |
The $2.4B is the 8-K's expected initial deliveries across 2027 and 2028; the filing gives no split by year, so the $1.2B assumes an even one. C&I segment total sales are from the second-quarter 2026 release and 10-Q, on the segment basis adopted 31 March 2026, which includes the former International segment. C&I product sales and net sales for 2025 are from the fourth-quarter 2025 release, on the old product-class basis. Every denominator is a 2025 or 2026 figure set against 2027-28 deliveries; the segment guided 2026 growth in the low 30% range.
Since 31 March the segment includes the former International segment. Against the narrower $1.46 billion of "C&I product sales" Generac reported for 2025, $1.2 billion is 82%; against 2025 net sales of $4.21 billion, 29%.
A 60-40 split makes one year 65% of the segment's pace and the other 43%, before the growth Generac guides "in the low 30% range" for 2026.
The customer signed in June; the volumes came on 16 September
On 2 June Generac announced a supply agreement with an unnamed "leading hyperscale data center operator". Its 29 July release added a second hyperscale customer, secured "on June 24th", with its 2027 and 2028 volumes still under negotiation and outside a data-centre backlog of about $1.6 billion.
The Transaction Agreement names the contracts behind the warrant: a "Global Purchase Agreement, dated as of June 24, 2026" with Amazon Data Services, and a "Long Term Supply Addendum" dated on or about 16 September. The dates match, but Generac has not named Amazon as July's second customer, so the match is ours. If it holds, what is new is the finalised 2027-28 volume and equity for a customer already signed.
The exhibits redact the floor, the tranches and the supply terms
- A floor with no number. Amazon "will have provided" orders or commitments "for no less than [***]".
- Tranches with no numbers. Beyond 307,954 shares vested on signing, redacted increments vest at redacted payment steps; a later offset can un-vest one.
- No shortfall clause. The Transaction Agreement ends only by mutual consent or, at Amazon's option, after a three-month antitrust delay. Neither exhibit penalises buying less; unvested shares simply lapse.
- A strike above the market, 14.7% over the $175.11 close. Qualcomm's and Marvell's were struck about 4% below theirs.
Tesla prices its Megapack against backup generators
Tesla pitches its Megapack battery for the same job. Its data-centre deck of October 2025 puts a battery level with diesel generators at "~20 hours of back up". Beyond that each extra hour is more battery to buy, while a generator burns more fuel. The deck rates diesel unable to smooth AI training loads.
Columns are the generator cost per installed kW in Tesla's deck; every conversion is R40 arithmetic
| Step | $1,000/kW | $800/kW |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon deliveries a year, expected | $1.20B | $1.20B |
| Backup bought, ÷ generator cost | 1.20 GW | 1.50 GW |
| Megapack, 2 nameplate hours | 2.4 GWh | 3.0 GWh |
| Megapack, 10 nameplate hours | 12.0 GWh | 15.0 GWh |
| Share of Tesla's 49.0 GWh, 10 hours | 24% | 31% |
| Share of Tesla's $12.8B energy revenue | 9.4% | 9.4% |
The $800 to $1,000 per installed kW generator cost, the ~20-hour break-even against diesel and the 50% loading behind it are from Tesla's 'Megapack for Data Centers' deck, October 2025. Twenty operational hours at 50% loading is 10 nameplate hours; 2 nameplate hours is the 2 MW / 4 MWh rating the deck gives a Megapack 2 XL. Tesla's cost is for installed diesel generators; Generac has not disclosed the fuel of Amazon's units, and a generator sale may exclude installation, so the gigawatts bought could be higher. Nobody has disclosed the backup duration Amazon specifies. Generac's $1.2B is its expected 2027-28 deliveries split evenly. Tesla's 49.0 GWh deployed and $12.8B of energy generation and storage revenue are the four quarters to 30 June 2026, from every customer; the revenue also includes Powerwall and solar. Both shares set forward deliveries to one customer against a whole segment's trailing figures.
At the deck's installed diesel cost, $1.2 billion a year is 1.2 to 1.5 GW of backup; 20 hours at Tesla's assumed half load is 12 to 15 GWh of Megapack, 24% to 31% of what Tesla deployed in the four quarters to June. The hours Amazon requires are undisclosed.
$3.5 billion of market value against $2.4 billion of expected sales
On the June quarter's 59.6 million diluted shares, $175.11 to $232.98 took Generac from $10.4 billion to $13.9 billion. The $3.5 billion added is 10 times the warrant's exercise price and 1.4 times the two-year delivery figure.
The strongest case for the move is the $5.6 billion between expected deliveries and the ceiling. The filing expects none of it, and buying less costs Amazon only unvested shares that were $44.4 million in the money after hours. For Amazon, the whole warrant was $54 million in the money: immaterial.
Two undisclosed figures settle what Generac has. A firm-order floor of $2.4 billion or more makes the expected deliveries committed; well below it, Amazon can take fewer. If Generac books the warrant as a reduction to revenue, as Marvell does with customer warrants, the $1.2 billion arrives net. Either can first appear in the September-quarter 10-Q. If Generac names someone else as July's second hyperscale customer, Amazon is a third, a new win after all.
Generac's 16 September 8-K and its two redacted exhibits give the warrant and contract terms; its 2 June and 29 July releases the customers, backlog, segment sales and guidance; its June-quarter 10-Q the segment change and diluted shares; its fourth-quarter release 2025 sales. Tesla's October 2025 data-centre deck gives generator cost, backup hours and loading, its June-quarter update deployments and energy revenue. Qualcomm and Marvell terms are from their filings; prices are Nasdaq's 16 September close and last after-hours trade. Every average, share, market value and battery conversion is ours, as is the Amazon date match.
