CXMT's board approved a half-year report on 28 August that closes two figures our August piece left open and adds one nobody has run. China's largest DRAM maker raised RMB 66.31 billion net in its Shanghai listing — about $9.9 billion, and 2.25 times the RMB 29.5 billion its prospectus asked for. In the same six months it paid RMB 21.59 billion of cash for plant, equipment and other long-lived assets, down 10.5% on the first half of 2025.
RMB 29.5bn and RMB 57.92bn were the same deal at two stages
Our 20 August piece said the raise "is reported as CNY 29.5bn in the prospectus and CNY 57.92bn in coverage of the completed deal, and we have not reconciled the two." They are the same deal at two stages. The base offering, priced at RMB 8.66 on 15 July, raised RMB 57.919bn gross and 57.638bn net — already 1.95 times the ask, because the price overshot the project budget, not because the deal grew. The over-allotment option was exercised in full on 26 August, adding 15% and taking the net to RMB 66.310bn.
That report also answers the first thing we said to watch, H1 profit against the RMB 50–57bn guide. Attributable net profit was RMB 77.605bn, a beat of 36% to 55%. The margin behind it is the cycle rather than the state: CXMT's H1 gross margin of 84.74% sits 0.18 of a point from Micron's 84.56% in the quarter to 28 May, and profit excluding non-recurring items exceeds it, so one-offs are a drag, not a subsidy.
$1.61bn a quarter, a fifth of Micron's rate
Divide the half: RMB 21.594bn ÷ 2 ÷ 6.72 is $1.61 billion a quarter. Micron spent $7.826bn of cash on capital in the single quarter to 28 May — the gross figure from its earnings-release cash-flow reconciliation, since the 10-Q's own column is nine-month — and $7.084bn net of government incentives and asset sales, the number Micron leads with. CXMT is running at 20.5% of the gross line, 22.7% of the net.
A Schulz Research post this morning set the Chinese raise against Micron's quarterly capex instead, and the framing has travelled. Those are two different objects: a raise is a stock of money, capital spending is a rate. CXMT's own rate is what belongs beside Micron's quarter, and it flatters the incumbent less — a fifth of the spending, and falling, not a war chest that exceeds one quarter's bill.
Construction in progress rose to RMB 36.78bn while cash spend fell
One half is not a trend, and the base is a pre-IPO half. Construction in progress rose over the same months, from RMB 31.79bn at year-end to RMB 36.78bn on 30 June — buildings whose cash may simply land later. Tools are the other constraint: CXMT has been on the Commerce Entity List since 2022, so a raise does not become wafers on the company's schedule.
The finding is only as hard as one filing. If CXMT's full-year report shows second-half cash plant spend above the first-half run rate, this is wrong and the $9.9bn did go into the ground.
YMTC is third on bits and fifth on dollars
A second filing has opened the NAND front. YMTC's parent CCSH filed on 21 August for RMB 33.0bn (about $4.9bn), split RMB 20.8bn for production lines and RMB 12.2bn for research, on first-quarter revenue of RMB 47.04bn and net profit of RMB 33.38bn at 98.02% utilisation. It has been under exchange inquiry since 3 September, unpriced.
The prospectus claims third place worldwide on both NAND revenue and shipments — the issuer citing TrendForce's first-quarter table, and independent second-quarter data splits it. TrendForce puts Micron third on NAND revenue at 15.1%, or $11.85bn, with YMTC outside the listed top five; Counterpoint puts YMTC third on bit shipments at 14% and fifth on dollars, the mix being consumer, not enterprise. Bits are the shipment rank; the money is with the incumbents, and SanDisk's $8.97bn in that table matches its own report.
No driver moves today, and the lever is where NAND sits
Nothing here forces a driver change. The filings are weeks old, the CCSH raise is unpriced, and this morning's Reuters item on a CXMT NAND research line rests on three unnamed sources with no capex figure, no date, and Reuters' caveat that it may not go beyond research. Re-sourcing our Micron model's bear case from X posts to a filing is newly possible, and is a model decision, not an editorial one.
The lever, for a reader who thinks Chinese bits do arrive, is where NAND sits in each book — and SK hynix has a named line, SanDisk nothing else, Micron none at all.
R40 model outputs, re-run today; conditional levers, not a change to any published case
| Model and driver | Fair value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| SanDisk, datacenter | $2,028.62 | -16.9% |
| SK hynix, NAND | $178.96 | -4.7% |
| Micron, mobile/client | $674.88 | -4.5% |
Each model's published base is held and one driver moved. SanDisk's datacenter terminal price drift goes from -1.5% to -4.5%; SK hynix's NAND line from -5% to -8%. Micron has no separate NAND vertical to stress, so the nearest lever is the mixed Mobile and Client line covering LPDDR, client DRAM and client SSDs, moved from -6.5% to -10% - a larger shock, for less damage.
Micron reports on 30 September.
CXMT's revenue, cost of sales, profit, cash plant spend and construction in progress are from its half-year report approved on 28 August; the offering and over-allotment figures are the listing announcements, the RMB 29.5bn ask and 8.66 price the prospectus and 15 July offering notice — all filed in Shanghai. CCSH's ask, use of proceeds, quarterly figures, utilisation and third-place claim are its 21 August prospectus; inquiry status is the exchange's. Micron's revenue and gross profit are the 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 May; the $7.826bn gross capital figure is the earnings-release reconciliation, the $7.084bn net the company's own release. NAND shares are TrendForce's of 18 August and Counterpoint's of August, on different bases. The Schulz Research comparison is an X post of 18 September. Dollar conversions are ours at CNY 6.72; our August piece used 6.74. Every ratio and per-quarter figure is ours, as are the model outputs, re-run today.
