XPEV · Forward model · Vehicle sales · Bull case
What has to happen in Vehicle sales
Model as of
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Vehicle sales
Basis quarter$2.51B
Final quarter$4.84B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix80%
A clean volume-times-price line: XPeng publishes total deliveries every month and every quarter, so dividing vehicle revenue by deliveries gives an ASP with no allocation. The constraint is volume, not price - deliveries were 103,295 against 103,181 a year earlier - and the vehicle gross margin has fallen for three straight quarters to 12.1% on what management calls the product generation transition. Growth from here has to come from overseas volume and from the GX and MONA L03 mix, not from raising prices in China.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.66B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.81B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.62B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.51B
Reported
New EV sales in Chinese MainlandNew EV sales overseas (disclosed only as a six-month geographic total, not per quarter)
Units
103295/qtr
growing +14.2% per quarter
103,295 deliveries in the basis quarter, disclosed. No seasonal adjustment: this line is carried aseasonal.
Price per unit
$24304
drifting +1.2% per quarter
RMB165,027 at RMB6.79/US$ - vehicle revenue divided by deliveries in the basis quarter. Disclosed inputs.
Vehicle sales
Latest: $4.84B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $1.30B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.16B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.12B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.49B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.66B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.81B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.62B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.51B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.94B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.19B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.35B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.47B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.58B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.67B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.75B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.84B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.92B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.01B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.09B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.17B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.25B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.34B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.42B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.50B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.59B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.67B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.76B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.84B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ASEASONAL, after testing for a season and rejecting it. Ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average on the fourteen quarters of consolidated revenue in our stored series (2023 Q1 to 2026 Q2; vehicle sales is 86-91% of that line) gives normalised factors of 0.82 for Q1, 0.89 for Q2, 1.00 for Q3 and 1.28 for Q4 - a peak-to-trough signal of 0.455. The window-to-window spread is 0.257 for Q1, 0.178 for Q2, 0.164 for Q3 and 0.373 for Q4, so on every single quarter the spread is larger than that quarter's own distance from 1.0. This line's own eight quarters of split history yield exactly one window per quarter index, so their spread is not merely wide, it is unmeasurable.
- The shape also fails out of sample on the most recent complete cycle, which is what settled it. Applied to deliveries, those factors predict 147,700 units in 2025 Q4 against 116,249 actually delivered, and 95,000 in 2026 Q1 against 62,682. On this line's own history the seasonal shape removes only about a tenth of the residual variance around a log-linear trend (RMSE 0.223 aseasonal against 0.201 with the best candidate set); on deliveries it removes about a fourteenth. Almost all of the variance is the 2024 MONA M03 launch and the 2026 Q1 collapse, and neither is a season.
- The cost of leaving it aseasonal is stated rather than hidden: the model cannot reproduce the March-quarter trough. 2026 Q1 deliveries of 62,682 were 39% below the quarter before, so the projected 2027 Q1 prints a year-over-year gain that is mostly a base effect, and projected FY2027 revenue grows faster than the business does for the same reason. Read the annual totals from 2028 onward, not the 2027 comparison.
- No per-vertical operating profit exists. XPeng has one reportable segment under ASC 280 and the CODM reviews consolidated revenue and gross profit only, so R&D and SG&A stay at corporate and the margin field on this line is the disclosed VEHICLE GROSS MARGIN of 12.08%, not an EBITDA margin.
- Capex intensity of 4.77% is derived, not disclosed: XPeng publishes no quarterly capex, only FY2025 capital expenditures of RMB3,347.1m. Holding the services line at an assumed 1.0% and solving the remainder against FY2025 vehicle revenue of RMB68,378.9m gives 4.77%, so total modelled capex reconciles to the disclosed annual figure rather than falling 8% short of it.
- Overseas revenue is disclosed only as a six-month geographic total covering both revenue lines - RMB8.23bn in H1 2026 against RMB5.07bn in H1 2025 - so the overseas ramp that management sized at above 20,000 deliveries in the basis quarter and above 40,000 by 2026 Q4 cannot be carved out as its own sub-line here. It is inside this line's volume growth, and the base case does not assume it all lands.