XPEV · Forward model · Bull case

The Bull case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Built in US dollars at the single disclosed convenience rate of RMB6.79 to US$1.00, the 30 June 2026 H.10 rate XPeng uses in the results release. Every historical quarter here is the reported RMB figure divided by that one rate, so year-over-year growth in this model is RMB growth. That is deliberate and it does NOT match our stored revenue series, which carries each quarter's own convenience translation at rates that moved from RMB7.2993 to RMB6.7852 over the tracked window - on that basis the basis quarter looks like 14% year-over-year growth when the reporting-currency growth was 8.0%. XPeng reports exactly two revenue lines, Vehicle sales and Services and others, and they sum to total revenues to the thousand in all eight quarters carried here, so no allocation is estimated and no quarter is marked estimated. It has one reportable segment under ASC 280 and the CODM reviews only consolidated revenue and gross profit, so there is no per-vertical operating profit: the margin field on each vertical is that line's DISCLOSED GROSS MARGIN, and all R&D and SG&A sit in corporate overhead at 27.4% of revenue - the basis quarter's 27.41% and the trailing four quarters' 27.57%. The consequence is honest and uncomfortable: the model's blended gross margin reaches about 24% in the final quarter against that fixed 27.4% overhead load, so the base case narrows the operating loss from 7.4% of revenue in the first projected quarter to 3.4% in the last and never crosses into profit. The valuation therefore rests entirely on the exit multiple. There is no robotics or robotaxi revenue line anywhere in this model. Dogotix has a filed US$6.3bn post-transaction valuation and the CEO has stated 2027 humanoid volumes, but no robot price, no robot revenue and no fleet size is disclosed, so that story appears only as an exit multiple in the He Xiaopeng case. Depreciation and amortisation are not disclosed quarterly, so the line labelled EBITDA here is gross profit less corporate overhead - an operating figure before any D&A add-back, which at the basis quarter is about RMB1.33bn negative against a reported loss from operations of RMB1.14bn; the difference is other operating income the model does not project. One limitation is worth naming plainly: the base case burns roughly US$0.35-0.44bn of free cash flow every quarter for twenty quarters - about the rate XPeng actually burned in the first half of 2026, RMB11.72bn - against net cash of US$3.05bn. A company on that path raises capital, and this model does not dilute for it, so the per-ADS fair value is generous to that extent in every case shown.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.