XIACY · Forward model · Internet services
What has to happen in Internet services
Model as of
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Internet services
The profit engine, and the reason the hardware margin can be as bad as it is. RMB9.0 billion of revenue in the June quarter at a 76.8% gross margin - 8.3% of revenue and, on gross profit, roughly 40% of everything the Smartphone x AIoT segment contributed. It scales with monthly active users, which reached a record 766.5 million, and it is monetised mostly through advertising, which grew 4.8%. This is the classic software-on-hardware conversion, and it is what funds the R&D that the other four verticals spend.
Latest: $1.81B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $1.25B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.31B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.40B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.37B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.32B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.35B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.37B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.42B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.44B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.47B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.49B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.51B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.56B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.59B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.61B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.63B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.68B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.71B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.73B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.76B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.78B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.81B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- ARPU is derived, not disclosed. Xiaomi publishes internet services revenue and monthly active users separately and never divides them, so the $0.575 figure is our arithmetic on two reported numbers rather than a company metric.
- The 76.8% gross margin is disclosed and is the highest in the company by a wide margin. The 50% EBITDA margin is ours - advertising carries real sales and platform cost that Xiaomi reports only at group level.
- Terminal capex intensity rises rather than falls, which is deliberate: serving AI features into the OS costs compute that advertising in 2026 did not need.
- Attach mode is used rather than net adds because the constraint is how much of an existing device base ever becomes active, not how fast Xiaomi can add users.