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What has to happen in Asia Pacific

Model as of

This page changes Asia Pacific inside the complete VRT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VRT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $940.60 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.86B 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.52B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The May 19, 2026 investor-conference five-year framework taken at face value: 20-22% organic CAGR and a 27%+ adjusted operating margin, against a market growing 16-18%. Four points of share plus content per megawatt. What this case does NOT do is invent a megawatt or liquid-cooling line to get there — it is faster growth and richer margin on the same three geographies. It also does not claim the framework is contracted; it is an ambition presented in Greenville.

Asia Pacific

Basis quarter$720M
Final quarter$3.86B
Implied CAGR+40%
Final revenue mix17%

The second geography, 22% of the basis quarter, growing fast at half the Americas margin. Q2 jumped from $514M to $720M; that is a step-change, not a run-rate, so opening sequential growth is set well below the trailing quarter. FY2026 organic guide is still low-30s, so the year remains a growth year. No published volume constraint.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $520M Reported
2025 Q4 $492M Reported
2026 Q1 $514M Reported
2026 Q2 $720M Reported
Power and thermal products into APAC hyperscale, colocation and enterpriseServices and spares on the regional installed base
Sequential growth +9.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 9.5% underlying; Q3 seasonality preserves the prior ~$778M regional target.
Asia Pacific

Latest: $3.86B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $332M
2024Q2 $409M
2024Q3 $432M
2024Q4 $544M
2025Q1 $447M
2025Q2 $560M
2025Q3 $520M
2025Q4 $492M
2026Q1 $514M
2026Q2 $720M
2026Q3E $805M
2026Q4E $931M
2027Q1E $938M
2027Q2E $1.11B
2027Q3E $1.20B
2027Q4E $1.35B
2028Q1E $1.34B
2028Q2E $1.56B
2028Q3E $1.67B
2028Q4E $1.87B
2029Q1E $1.83B
2029Q2E $2.13B
2029Q3E $2.27B
2029Q4E $2.52B
2030Q1E $2.47B
2030Q2E $2.87B
2030Q3E $3.05B
2030Q4E $3.40B
2031Q1E $3.33B
2031Q2E $3.86B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver for the same reason as Americas: no units, no megawatts, a disclosed geography. The 9.5% opening rate is before the lower Q3 seasonal factor and preserves the prior ~$778M target; it does not repeat Q2's 40% jump.
  • Margin is structurally lower than the other two geographies — 13.3% in the basis quarter, 9.9-13.2% across 2025. Terminal 16% is a few points of leverage, not a walk to Americas 28%. Closing that gap is a bull-case claim.
  • Q2 FX was a $15.8M tailwind and there was no APAC acquisition contribution. Organic +25.7% is the number that actually happened. Taiwan 800 VDC and NVIDIA collaborations are content mix inside this line, not a fourth vertical.
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