← VRT forward model

VRT · Forward model · Asia Pacific · Bear case

What has to happen in Asia Pacific

Model as of

This page changes Asia Pacific inside the complete VRT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VRT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $78.46 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $630M 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $782M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The Q2 timing miss was demand. Americas sequential growth halves, EMEA's promised H2 recovery slips a year, and the multiple compresses toward a mid-cycle electrical-equipment stock. What this case does NOT assume is a collapse in the installed-base services book, a loss of the net-cash balance sheet, or a return to 2024's margins. It says 2026 was the peak growth year for the AI-factory content cycle.

Asia Pacific

Basis quarter$720M
Final quarter$630M
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix17%

The second geography, 22% of the basis quarter, growing fast at half the Americas margin. Q2 jumped from $514M to $720M; that is a step-change, not a run-rate, so opening sequential growth is set well below the trailing quarter. FY2026 organic guide is still low-30s, so the year remains a growth year. No published volume constraint.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $520M Reported
2025 Q4 $492M Reported
2026 Q1 $514M Reported
2026 Q2 $720M Reported
Power and thermal products into APAC hyperscale, colocation and enterpriseServices and spares on the regional installed base
Sequential growth +9.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 9.5% underlying; Q3 seasonality preserves the prior ~$778M regional target.
Asia Pacific

Latest: $630M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $332M
2024Q2 $409M
2024Q3 $432M
2024Q4 $544M
2025Q1 $447M
2025Q2 $560M
2025Q3 $520M
2025Q4 $492M
2026Q1 $514M
2026Q2 $720M
2026Q3E $746M
2026Q4E $797M
2027Q1E $739M
2027Q2E $805M
2027Q3E $796M
2027Q4E $819M
2028Q1E $739M
2028Q2E $788M
2028Q3E $767M
2028Q4E $780M
2029Q1E $698M
2029Q2E $739M
2029Q3E $716M
2029Q4E $726M
2030Q1E $647M
2030Q2E $684M
2030Q3E $661M
2030Q4E $670M
2031Q1E $597M
2031Q2E $630M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver for the same reason as Americas: no units, no megawatts, a disclosed geography. The 9.5% opening rate is before the lower Q3 seasonal factor and preserves the prior ~$778M target; it does not repeat Q2's 40% jump.
  • Margin is structurally lower than the other two geographies — 13.3% in the basis quarter, 9.9-13.2% across 2025. Terminal 16% is a few points of leverage, not a walk to Americas 28%. Closing that gap is a bull-case claim.
  • Q2 FX was a $15.8M tailwind and there was no APAC acquisition contribution. Organic +25.7% is the number that actually happened. Taiwan 800 VDC and NVIDIA collaborations are content mix inside this line, not a fourth vertical.
VRT model map

Explore another vertical