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VRT · Forward model · Americas · Bull case

What has to happen in Americas

Model as of

This page changes Americas inside the complete VRT model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

VRT forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $529.42 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.64B 66% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $22.68B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

H2 conversion works, EMEA actually recovers, and mix plus leverage walk adjusted operating margin into the high-20s while volume still compounds. The exit multiple keeps a duration premium versus Eaton. What this case does NOT reach is a 21% organic CAGR held for five years — that is the Framework case, and it needs both the growth and the 27% margin at once.

Americas

Basis quarter$2.07B
Final quarter$8.64B
Implied CAGR+33%
Final revenue mix66%

Power, thermal and services into US and Latin-American data centers — 63% of the basis quarter and the AI-factory engine. What paces it is conversion of already-booked work, not whether the work exists: Q2 missed the company's own midpoint because of supply-chain congestion and multi-phase project execution, and the raise sitting next to that miss is the evidence management gave that the miss was timing. No unit or megawatt series is disclosed, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported geography.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.71B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.81B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.07B Reported
Critical power — UPS, switchgear, busway — for hyperscale and colocationThermal management, including liquid cooling, sold as equipmentServices and spares on the installed Americas basePurgeRite fluid-management, acquired and Americas-weighted
Sequential growth +16.9%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 16.9% underlying; Q3 seasonality preserves the guided ~$2.44B regional conversion target.
Americas

Latest: $8.64B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $925M
2024Q2 $1.12B
2024Q3 $1.20B
2024Q4 $1.26B
2025Q1 $1.19B
2025Q2 $1.60B
2025Q3 $1.71B
2025Q4 $1.89B
2026Q1 $1.81B
2026Q2 $2.07B
2026Q3E $2.49B
2026Q4E $2.91B
2027Q1E $2.98B
2027Q2E $3.57B
2027Q3E $3.93B
2027Q4E $4.30B
2028Q1E $4.17B
2028Q2E $4.80B
2028Q3E $5.14B
2028Q4E $5.49B
2029Q1E $5.24B
2029Q2E $5.96B
2029Q3E $6.32B
2029Q4E $6.70B
2030Q1E $6.37B
2030Q2E $7.21B
2030Q3E $7.62B
2030Q4E $8.07B
2031Q1E $7.64B
2031Q2E $8.64B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on sequential growth rather than units or capacity because Vertiv publishes neither a rack/MW shipped figure nor a nameplate. The 16.9% opening rate is the underlying pace before the Q3 factor; together they preserve the prior ~$2.44B Q3 target.
  • Americas Q2 was +29.2% reported and +21.1% organic. Acquisition sales were $124.1M of the $468.5M increase — PurgeRite and other 2025/2026 deals sitting in the base, which is why opening growth is applied to $2,070.8M rather than added as a new vertical.
  • Adjusted operating margin 27.6% in the basis quarter, 30.1% in Q4 2025. Terminal 30% holds the recent peak rather than walking to the company-level 27% ambition; that ambition is the Framework case. Capex is not disclosed by segment: 5% now and 4% later is the company rate from the Q2 release, applied here because there is nothing else to apply.
  • Concentration is the risk no slider expresses. One delayed US hyperscale campus is an Americas miss, which is what Q2 just was. The $15.0B backlog is Q4 2025 and was not updated in Q2, so it is not used as a volume input.
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