VRT · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Vertiv reports THREE geographic segments — Americas, Asia Pacific, EMEA — and this model carries exactly those three. Every historical point is copied from the earnings releases; nothing is apportioned. Products vs Services & spares is also disclosed every quarter (Q2: $2,606.4M and $667.9M) but has no segment operating profit, so it lives in the notes rather than as verticals. Liquid cooling, 800 VDC and PurgeRite are collaborations, not lines. Quarter labels are calendar, matching the company: FY ends 31 December, so 2026 Q2 is the June quarter. Two reconciliation nits: the site series stores 2026 Q1 as $2,650M against the 8-K's $2,649.5M, and 2025 Q3 as $2,676M against $2,675.8M; actuals follow the filings. P&L 'net sales - products' $2,646.7M is not the offering-table Products line. Q2 2026 orders, book-to-bill and backlog were not disclosed — the $15.0B figure is Q4 2025 and is not carried forward. Segment EBITDA here is the disclosed adjusted operating margin at the reportable-segment level (no D&A split is published). Capex is not disclosed by segment; 5% current / 4% terminal is the company rate applied uniformly. netCash is cash $2,810.6M plus short-term investments $300.0M less long-term debt $2,939.8M. Each geography now carries a conservatively shrunken, two-year trend-adjusted calendar shape: Q1 trough and Q4 peak. Opening growth was recalibrated so Q3 remains inside guidance rather than treating the seasonal factor as incremental demand.
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Latest: $13.12B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.64B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.95B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.07B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.35B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.04B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.64B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.68B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.88B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.65B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.27B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.86B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.53B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.43B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.93B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.55B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.33B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.25B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.70B |
| 2028Q4E | $8.34B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.95B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.99B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $10.20B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.67B |
| 2030Q2E | $10.90B |
| 2030Q3E | $11.45B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.31B |
| 2031Q1E | $11.65B |
| 2031Q2E | $13.12B |
Where each case comes from
Framework case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Framework column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Vertiv 2026 Investor Conference, 19 May 2026
- May 19, 2026 We now think in terms of a top-line growth in the 5 years on the 20%-22% CAGR. It is above market growth.
- May 19, 2026 All what I have shared with you is really giving us the confidence in delivering on our long-term financial projections with above-market organic growth between 20% and 22%, a margin ambition of 27%+.
- May 19, 2026 Vertiv's 2026 Investor Conference is now available on demand. Access the on-demand replays and presentations.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 9.5% a year with an exit multiple of 6.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $22.80B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $48.53B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $13.42B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 6.0x |
| Terminal value | $291.17B |
| Discounted at 9.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $184.96B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 89% |
| Enterprise value | $207.76B |
| Net cash | $171M |
| Equity value | $207.93B |
| Shares | 0.39B |
| Fair value per share | $529.42 |
| Against the deployed price of $241.31, as of | +119% |
4.5x terminal revenue on a mid-20s blended adjusted operating margin — about 18x that margin, which is where a high-quality electrical-equipment franchise belongs once growth has decayed, not where an AI-duration story belongs. At $254.97 the equity trades at about 7.1x FY2026 guided sales and 8.7x trailing sales (EV ~$100B on $14B and $11.5B). Eaton sits nearer 5.3x sales. The exit is a de-rate from today's multiple, and deliberately: the terminal year in this model is a larger, slower business than the one being valued at 7x. Discount rate is 11% rather than 10% for two specific reasons — Q2 just demonstrated conversion risk, and Americas concentration is unquantified below the geography. Move the exit multiple before anything else. Nothing here prices the Q4 2025 $15B backlog as a contracted cash flow; it shows up only as the growth rate the first two projected quarters can sustain.
Read the other way round: at $241.31 the market is paying 2.3x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Americas | Asia Pacific | Europe, Middle East & Africa | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $2.49B | $793M | $573M | $3.86B | +44% | $988M | $188M | $632M | +61 | $617M |
| 2026 Q4E | $2.91B | $900M | $712M | $4.53B | +57% | $1.17B | $216M | $753M | +74 | $720M |
| 2027 Q1E | $2.98B | $887M | $720M | $4.58B | +73% | $1.19B | $215M | $774M | +90 | $723M |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.57B | $1.03B | $843M | $5.43B | +66% | $1.43B | $250M | $930M | +83 | $849M |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.93B | $1.08B | $921M | $5.93B | +54% | $1.57B | $268M | $1.03B | +71 | $918M |
| 2027 Q4E | $4.30B | $1.18B | $1.07B | $6.55B | +45% | $1.74B | $292M | $1.15B | +62 | $1000M |
| 2028 Q1E | $4.17B | $1.13B | $1.04B | $6.33B | +38% | $1.69B | $279M | $1.12B | +56 | $953M |
| 2028 Q2E | $4.80B | $1.28B | $1.17B | $7.25B | +33% | $1.95B | $316M | $1.29B | +51 | $1.07B |
| 2028 Q3E | $5.14B | $1.32B | $1.24B | $7.70B | +30% | $2.08B | $333M | $1.38B | +48 | $1.13B |
| 2028 Q4E | $5.49B | $1.43B | $1.42B | $8.34B | +27% | $2.26B | $357M | $1.50B | +45 | $1.20B |
| 2029 Q1E | $5.24B | $1.36B | $1.35B | $7.95B | +25% | $2.16B | $337M | $1.44B | +44 | $1.12B |
| 2029 Q2E | $5.96B | $1.53B | $1.50B | $8.99B | +24% | $2.45B | $379M | $1.64B | +42 | $1.25B |
| 2029 Q3E | $6.32B | $1.57B | $1.59B | $9.48B | +23% | $2.59B | $397M | $1.73B | +41 | $1.29B |
| 2029 Q4E | $6.70B | $1.70B | $1.80B | $10.20B | +22% | $2.79B | $425M | $1.87B | +41 | $1.36B |
| 2030 Q1E | $6.37B | $1.61B | $1.70B | $9.67B | +22% | $2.65B | $401M | $1.78B | +40 | $1.27B |
| 2030 Q2E | $7.21B | $1.80B | $1.89B | $10.90B | +21% | $3.00B | $450M | $2.01B | +40 | $1.40B |
| 2030 Q3E | $7.62B | $1.85B | $1.98B | $11.45B | +21% | $3.16B | $471M | $2.13B | +39 | $1.45B |
| 2030 Q4E | $8.07B | $1.99B | $2.25B | $12.31B | +21% | $3.40B | $505M | $2.29B | +39 | $1.52B |
| 2031 Q1E | $7.64B | $1.89B | $2.12B | $11.65B | +20% | $3.22B | $476M | $2.17B | +39 | $1.41B |
| 2031 Q2E | $8.64B | $2.12B | $2.35B | $13.12B | +20% | $3.63B | $535M | $2.45B | +39 | $1.56B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $254.65 | Added quarterly seasonality by geography from FY2024-FY2025. Applied 40% of the trend-adjusted historical amplitude to fit management's Q4 guide, then recalibrated opening growth to preserve the existing Q3 regional targets without double-counting growth. |
| 2026-08-25 | $261.49 | Initial model. Three geographic verticals copied from the Q2 2026 release, basis the June quarter at $3,274.3M, FY2026 base case calibrated inside the $13.8-14.2B guide. |