SMCI · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Super Micro reports as ONE operating segment. The two verticals here are the customer-type split the company itself discloses — OEM Appliance & Large Data Center, and Enterprise & Channel — and nothing has been invented beneath them. Only the basis quarter is a reported split: management put fiscal Q4 2026 at roughly 50/50 ($5.5B large-data-centre, $5.6B enterprise/channel), and the FY2026 full-year split at 69%/31% of $39.06B. The three earlier quarters are therefore APPORTIONED: the full-year totals less the reported Q4, spread across fiscal Q1-Q3 at the resulting 76.8%/23.2% ratio, and every one of them is flagged estimated. History starts at fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar 2025 Q3) rather than running back further because the FY2025 customer-type split is not in hand — a shorter honest history beats four more quarters of guesswork. Quarter labels are CALENDAR, not fiscal: Super Micro's FY2026 Q4 ended 30 June 2026 and appears here as 2026 Q2. Segment EBITDA margins and capex intensity are assumptions, not disclosure — Super Micro publishes no segment profitability at all. The model's largest known omission is working capital: free cash flow here is EBITDA less capex less tax, and Super Micro's cash is consumed by inventory and receivable builds ahead of large deployments, not by capex (FY2026 free cash flow was deeply negative in the quarter revenue nearly doubled). Read the fair value as the value of the earnings stream, then discount it yourself for the fact that growth at this company is cash-hungry in a way this engine does not charge for. netCash is set to zero deliberately: the balance sheet carries convertible notes against a cash position that swings by billions with the inventory cycle, and a single point estimate would be more misleading than none.
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Latest: $40.89B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $5.02B |
| 2026Q2 | $12.68B |
| 2026Q3 | $10.24B |
| 2026Q4 | $11.12B |
| 2027Q1E | $13.36B |
| 2027Q2E | $15.83B |
| 2027Q3E | $18.59B |
| 2027Q4E | $21.73B |
| 2028Q1E | $25.35B |
| 2028Q2E | $28.73B |
| 2028Q3E | $29.59B |
| 2028Q4E | $30.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $31.25B |
| 2029Q2E | $32.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $32.87B |
| 2029Q4E | $33.68B |
| 2030Q1E | $34.50B |
| 2030Q2E | $35.34B |
| 2030Q3E | $36.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $37.08B |
| 2031Q1E | $37.99B |
| 2031Q2E | $38.92B |
| 2031Q3E | $39.89B |
| 2031Q4E | $40.89B |
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.5% a year with an exit multiple of 0.6x on revenue. The sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $36.30B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $157.70B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $18.54B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 0.6x |
| Terminal value | $94.62B |
| Discounted at 11.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $54.90B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 60% |
| Enterprise value | $91.21B |
| Net cash | $0 |
| Equity value | $91.21B |
| Shares | 0.65B |
| Fair value per share | $141.00 |
| Against the deployed price of $37.38, as of | +277% |
0.4x terminal revenue on a roughly 8% blended EBITDA margin — about 5x EBITDA, which is where a thin-margin hardware integrator with real customer concentration belongs, not where a platform belongs. Super Micro trades near 0.65x trailing sales today, so the exit multiple is a de-rating, and deliberately: the terminal year in this model is a much larger, more concentrated, lower-margin business than the one being valued at 0.65x. The discount rate is 13% rather than the 10-11% used for the platform names, for three reasons that are all specific rather than atmospheric — one customer at 28% of revenue, a gross margin that has ranged from 6.3% to 17.5% across the last four quarters, and a working-capital pattern that consumes cash exactly when the business is winning. Move the exit multiple before anything else: at 0.25x and at 0.7x the answer moves by more than any operating assumption in the spec, which is the honest warning about valuing a business whose margin is this thin. Nothing here prices the >$60B order book as backlog; it shows up only as the growth rate it can sustain.
Read the other way round: at $37.38 the market is paying -0.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | OEM Appliance & Large Data Center | Enterprise & Channel | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q1E | $6.82B | $6.54B | $13.36B | +166% | $1.73B | $267M | $1.25B | +176 | $1.21B |
| 2027 Q2E | $8.44B | $7.40B | $15.83B | +25% | $1.99B | $317M | $1.43B | +34 | $1.35B |
| 2027 Q3E | $10.41B | $8.19B | $18.59B | +82% | $2.26B | $372M | $1.61B | +90 | $1.48B |
| 2027 Q4E | $12.81B | $8.92B | $21.73B | +95% | $2.55B | $435M | $1.80B | +104 | $1.61B |
| 2028 Q1E | $15.74B | $9.61B | $25.35B | +90% | $2.86B | $507M | $2.00B | +98 | $1.75B |
| 2028 Q2E | $18.46B | $10.27B | $28.73B | +81% | $3.15B | $575M | $2.19B | +89 | $1.86B |
| 2028 Q3E | $18.69B | $10.90B | $29.59B | +59% | $3.26B | $592M | $2.27B | +67 | $1.88B |
| 2028 Q4E | $18.90B | $11.53B | $30.43B | +40% | $3.37B | $609M | $2.35B | +48 | $1.89B |
| 2029 Q1E | $19.10B | $12.15B | $31.25B | +23% | $3.48B | $625M | $2.42B | +31 | $1.90B |
| 2029 Q2E | $19.28B | $12.78B | $32.06B | +12% | $3.58B | $641M | $2.50B | +19 | $1.90B |
| 2029 Q3E | $19.45B | $13.41B | $32.87B | +11% | $3.69B | $657M | $2.58B | +19 | $1.91B |
| 2029 Q4E | $19.61B | $14.07B | $33.68B | +11% | $3.80B | $674M | $2.66B | +19 | $1.92B |
| 2030 Q1E | $19.77B | $14.74B | $34.50B | +10% | $3.92B | $690M | $2.74B | +18 | $1.92B |
| 2030 Q2E | $19.91B | $15.43B | $35.34B | +10% | $4.03B | $707M | $2.83B | +18 | $1.93B |
| 2030 Q3E | $20.05B | $16.15B | $36.20B | +10% | $4.16B | $724M | $2.92B | +18 | $1.94B |
| 2030 Q4E | $20.18B | $16.90B | $37.08B | +10% | $4.28B | $742M | $3.01B | +18 | $1.95B |
| 2031 Q1E | $20.31B | $17.68B | $37.99B | +10% | $4.42B | $760M | $3.11B | +18 | $1.96B |
| 2031 Q2E | $20.43B | $18.49B | $38.92B | +10% | $4.56B | $778M | $3.21B | +18 | $1.97B |
| 2031 Q3E | $20.55B | $19.34B | $39.89B | +10% | $4.70B | $798M | $3.32B | +19 | $1.98B |
| 2031 Q4E | $20.67B | $20.22B | $40.89B | +10% | $4.86B | $818M | $3.43B | +19 | $1.99B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | — | Initial model. Two verticals on the disclosed customer-type split, basis fiscal Q4 2026 (calendar 2026 Q2) at $11.12B revenue, FY2027 base case calibrated to the $65-72B guidance range. |