SHOP · Forward model · Merchant solutions · Bull case
What has to happen in Merchant solutions
Model as of
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Merchant solutions
The success-based half and the engine of the company: $2,781M of the $3,583M basis quarter, 77.6% of revenue, growing 37% year over year. Its volume constraint is disclosed every quarter - GMV, $115,567M in the basis quarter, up 32% - and its price is the attach rate, merchant solutions revenue per dollar of GMV, 2.406% as reported. Both halves compound: deseasonalised GMV has grown 7.0% a quarter over the last eight quarters and the deseasonalised attach rate has risen about 1.1% a quarter as Shopify Payments penetration climbed to 68% of global GMV, three points in a year. The unit driver carries deseasonalised GMV as units and the deseasonalised attach rate as unit price, because runUnitCurve ignores the vertical's base and the engine reapplies the calendar factor afterwards.
Latest: $9.62B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.13B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.25B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.23B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.62B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.35B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.48B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.55B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.15B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.74B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.02B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.15B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.90B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.42B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.78B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.93B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.02B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.35B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.77B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.93B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.34B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.41B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.92B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.88B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.65B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.26B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.45B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.66B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.08B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.82B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.02B |
| 2030Q4E | $10.72B |
| 2031Q1E | $8.74B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.62B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The units trace reads DESEASONALISED GMV of $119,957M, not the reported $115,567M. runUnitCurve emits units x price and ignores the vertical's base, so the deseasonalisation has to be baked into the inputs; projectVertical then reapplies the calendar factor. Check: 119,957 x 0.0241318 x 0.9607 = 2,781, the reported quarter.
- Unit price is the deseasonalised attach rate, 2.41318% of GMV, against a reported 2.4064%. It is disclosed by arithmetic - merchant solutions revenue over GMV - not published as a metric, and it has risen in eight of the last nine quarters.
- Seasonality [0.918, 0.961, 0.935, 1.187] is the clearest signal in the company: amplitude 0.269 index points against a worst observation spread of 0.030, and all three Q4 observations land between 1.164 and 1.194. The company states the mechanism in its own 10-Q - merchants process additional GMV during the fourth-quarter holiday season, so merchant solutions revenue is historically higher in Q4.
- 6.4% is a deseasonalised TREND rate for GMV, below the observed 7.01% eight-quarter mean because the path decays toward 3.2%. Over twenty quarters it compounds deseasonalised GMV 2.63x, more conservative than a flat 5.5% would be. The reported sequential step is the trend times the calendar factor, which is why the projected December quarters print roughly 30% above their Septembers.
- No revenue split is published between Payments, Capital, shipping, POS hardware and advertising, so the model cannot and does not show which of them is lifting the attach rate.
- Shopify stopped publishing GPV as a key performance indicator after 2024; the 2026 10-Q names only MRR and GMV. Payments penetration of 68% comes from the earnings call, not from a filing, so the attach-rate drift has no disclosed saturation point to glide toward.