SHOP · Forward model · Subscription solutions · Bear case
What has to happen in Subscription solutions
Model as of
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Subscription solutions
The recurring half of Shopify's two disclosed revenue lines: platform plans from Basic to Plus, POS Pro subscriptions, variable platform fees charged to large merchants above contractual GMV thresholds, themes, Shopify-sold apps and domains. It was $802M of the $3,583M basis quarter - 22.4% of revenue - at a 79.7% gross margin against merchant solutions' 38.4%, so it is a minority of revenue and close to half of gross profit. The disclosed volume metric is MRR, $221M at 30 June 2026 and up 19% year over year, but Shopify has never published a merchant count, so a subscribers x ARPU driver would have to invent the subscriber base. The line is modelled as a deseasonalised growth trend instead.
Latest: $723M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $382M |
| 2023Q2 | $444M |
| 2023Q3 | $486M |
| 2023Q4 | $525M |
| 2024Q1 | $511M |
| 2024Q2 | $563M |
| 2024Q3 | $610M |
| 2024Q4 | $666M |
| 2025Q1 | $620M |
| 2025Q2 | $656M |
| 2025Q3 | $699M |
| 2025Q4 | $777M |
| 2026Q1 | $750M |
| 2026Q2 | $802M |
| 2026Q3E | $832M |
| 2026Q4E | $871M |
| 2027Q1E | $793M |
| 2027Q2E | $817M |
| 2027Q3E | $842M |
| 2027Q4E | $875M |
| 2028Q1E | $793M |
| 2028Q2E | $812M |
| 2028Q3E | $832M |
| 2028Q4E | $861M |
| 2029Q1E | $776M |
| 2029Q2E | $791M |
| 2029Q3E | $808M |
| 2029Q4E | $833M |
| 2030Q1E | $748M |
| 2030Q2E | $761M |
| 2030Q3E | $774M |
| 2030Q4E | $795M |
| 2031Q1E | $713M |
| 2031Q2E | $723M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Shopify has ONE reportable segment - the CODM is the CEO, managing on consolidated net income. Subscription solutions and merchant solutions are disaggregated revenue lines printed on the face of the income statement every quarter with their own cost of revenues. That is a disclosed split, not an apportioned one.
- Driver kind is deliberately 'growth', not 'subscription'. Shopify publishes MRR but has never published a paying-merchant count, and inventing a subscriber base to back into $802M would manufacture a split the company does not report.
- Seasonality is mild and derived, not disclosed: [0.955, 0.982, 1.011, 1.052] by calendar quarter, from a ratio-to-moving-average on the fourteen quarters 2023 Q1 - 2026 Q2. Amplitude is 0.097 index points against a worst per-quarter observation spread of 0.030. The Q2 and Q3 factors are indistinguishable in this data; only the Q4-up, Q1-down axis is load-bearing.
- The mechanism behind the mild shape is disclosed: variable platform fees are charged to Plus merchants above GMV thresholds, and Plus GMV spikes at the holidays, so part of this 'recurring' line is in fact GMV-linked and a GMV shock hits both verticals at once.
- Because the engine deseasonalises the basis quarter before the driver runs, 4.3% is a deseasonalised TREND rate, not a printed sequential step. The printed 2026 Q3 step off $802M is about +7.4% once the Q3 factor is reapplied.
- Fiscal note: Shopify's fiscal year is the calendar year, so seasonality index 0 is genuinely January-March and no fiscal-to-calendar mapping is needed.