NVDA · Forward model · Data Center — Compute
What has to happen in Data Center — Compute
Model as of
This page changes Data Center — Compute inside the complete NVDA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Data Center — Compute
Basis quarter$71.56B
Final quarter$157.90B
Implied CAGR+17%
Final revenue mix69%
The GPU business: Blackwell 300 today, Rubin next, sold increasingly as whole NVL72-class racks rather than as chips. Roughly three quarters of the company, and the line on which every other number in this model depends.
Last four quarters
2026 Q3
$43.03B
Reported
2026 Q4
$51.33B
Reported
2027 Q1
$60.45B
Estimated
2027 Q2
$71.56B
Estimated
Rack-scale systems (GB300 NVL72 and successors)HGX boards and PCIe acceleratorsGrace CPUs and DGX systemsCUDA, AI Enterprise and platform software
Units
24095/qtr
growing +13.5% per quarter
24,095 rack-equivalents in the basis quarter, backed out of $71.6B of compute revenue at a $2.97M rack. Not disclosed. The previous basis implied 20,150 racks and the model projected 22,266 for this quarter, so volume beat by 8%.
Price per unit
$3M
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$2.97M per NVL72-class rack — $3.0M drifted down one quarter, exactly as the model said it would. Held rather than re-cut, though the call put Vera Rubin at ~$40B of revenue per gigawatt and Huang said "we have also repriced our products", both of which argue this is too low.
Data Center — Compute
Latest: $157.90B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $34.16B |
| 2026Q2 | $33.84B |
| 2026Q3 | $43.03B |
| 2026Q4 | $51.33B |
| 2027Q1 | $60.45B |
| 2027Q2 | $71.56B |
| 2027Q3E | $80.41B |
| 2027Q4E | $90.35B |
| 2028Q1E | $101.53B |
| 2028Q2E | $114.08B |
| 2028Q3E | $128.19B |
| 2028Q4E | $144.04B |
| 2029Q1E | $161.85B |
| 2029Q2E | $178.14B |
| 2029Q3E | $176.35B |
| 2029Q4E | $174.59B |
| 2030Q1E | $172.85B |
| 2030Q2E | $171.12B |
| 2030Q3E | $169.41B |
| 2030Q4E | $167.71B |
| 2031Q1E | $166.03B |
| 2031Q2E | $164.37B |
| 2031Q3E | $162.73B |
| 2031Q4E | $161.10B |
| 2032Q1E | $159.49B |
| 2032Q2E | $157.90B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled as racks shipped times price per rack, not as a revenue growth rate, because NVIDIA's constraint is physical — advanced packaging, HBM supply and power at the customer site — and a single growth number would hide it. The rack count is backed out of revenue at the assumed rack price, not disclosed: NVIDIA publishes no unit volumes at all.
- The volume ceiling is the whole argument, and this roll-forward has made it bind three quarters sooner. 65,000 racks a quarter is 2.7x the basis quarter's implied output, and at 13.5% the line reaches it in about eight quarters — mid-2028 in calendar terms — and then stops. Management guided FY2028 revenue up ~70% and called it supply-constrained; this model now says the supply story ends roughly one year after that. If you think NVIDIA keeps adding capacity past 2029, the ceiling is the input to argue with, not the growth rate.
- Price per rack drifts DOWN 1% a quarter while the rack gets more capable. Two things said on this call argue against it: Vera Rubin was priced at roughly $40B of revenue per gigawatt against $25B for Grace Blackwell and $18B for Hopper, and Huang said plainly "we have also repriced our products in the marketplace". Neither is a rack ASP — dollars per gigawatt and dollars per rack are separated by rack density, which NVIDIA does not disclose — so the assumption is held here rather than re-cut on an unconverted unit. It is the single most exposed input in this model.
- The first projected quarter lands within 0.1% of NVIDIA's own $108.0B guide for 2027 Q3, tighter than the 2% gap the previous basis carried.
- EBITDA margin starts at 76% — segment gross margin less direct cost, before the 5% of revenue this model charges centrally for R&D and SG&A — and glides to 66%. At the basis quarter the three verticals weight to 71.4% less 5% overhead, against a reported 66.2% operating margin, so the calibration still holds. What it does NOT yet carry is the guided reset: 74.0% gross margin in 2027 Q3, a 71-72% trough in Q4 and 72-73% through FY2028, on memory cost. The glide takes margin down anyway; it just does not take it down on that schedule.