NVDA · Forward model
Revenue by vertical, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Quarters are labelled the way NVIDIA labels them: fiscal, running a year ahead of the calendar, so 2027 Q2 is the quarter ended 26 July 2026. NVIDIA reports two segments (Compute & Networking, Graphics) and three market platforms (Data Center — split into Hyperscale and ACIE — and Edge Computing). This model carries three verticals cut on a different axis: Data Center compute, Data Center networking, and everything else, because that is where the economics differ. Edge Computing is exact throughout: NVIDIA reports it directly ($7,198M in the basis quarter) and it is the arithmetic remainder of total less Data Center for every earlier quarter. THE COMPUTE/NETWORKING SPLIT HAS NOW RUN OUT, which the first cut of this model said it would. NVIDIA tabulated it in the CFO commentary for 2026 Q1 through 2026 Q4, gave it in prose only for 2027 Q1 ($60.4B compute, $14.8B networking), and for the basis quarter gives no split at all — only the call's "our networking business had another record quarter, with revenue growing 18% on a sequential basis". So the basis quarter is $17,464M of networking (14,800 x 1.18) and $71,559M of compute (89,023 less networking), both marked ESTIMATED. Nothing is apportioned, but the two Data Center lines now rest on one sentence from the call rather than on a table, and the next quarter may not even offer that. What is NOT modelled: the Hyperscale/ACIE split NVIDIA now reports instead, which is a customer cut rather than a product cut and carries no separate economics.
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Latest: $230.33B (2032Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026Q1 | $44.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $46.74B |
| 2026Q3 | $57.01B |
| 2026Q4 | $68.13B |
| 2027Q1 | $81.61B |
| 2027Q2 | $96.22B |
| 2027Q3E | $107.97B |
| 2027Q4E | $121.19B |
| 2028Q1E | $136.08B |
| 2028Q2E | $152.85B |
| 2028Q3E | $171.77B |
| 2028Q4E | $193.09B |
| 2029Q1E | $217.16B |
| 2029Q2E | $239.50B |
| 2029Q3E | $238.61B |
| 2029Q4E | $237.74B |
| 2030Q1E | $236.90B |
| 2030Q2E | $236.07B |
| 2030Q3E | $235.27B |
| 2030Q4E | $234.49B |
| 2031Q1E | $233.74B |
| 2031Q2E | $233.01B |
| 2031Q3E | $232.30B |
| 2031Q4E | $231.62B |
| 2032Q1E | $230.96B |
| 2032Q2E | $230.33B |
Where each case comes from
China returns case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the China returns column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
China is excluded from the company's own numbers
What the supply behind it looks like
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $1.52T |
| Terminal-year revenue | $925.22B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $547.10B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $7.40T |
| Discounted at 10.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $4.60T |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 75% |
| Enterprise value | $6.12T |
| Net cash | $24.20B |
| Equity value | $6.14T |
| Shares | 24.29B |
| Fair value per share | $252.93 |
| Against the deployed price of $218.36, as of | +16% |
8x terminal revenue against 21x trailing today. The ramp now runs to 2030: volume compounds at about 44% a year through 2030 Q1, decays across the rest of 2030 as it approaches the 65,000-unit-a-quarter ceiling, and from 2031 the line is flat to slightly down. That is the awkward part — the terminal year itself barely grows, at a 59% EBITDA margin, so 8x revenue on it is about 13.5x EBITDA for a business that has stopped compounding. Generous, deliberately, because the alternative is to argue the ceiling is wrong, which is what the Bull case does instead. Note the multiple is a per-case input, not a global one: Bear holds 4x, Bull 12x, China returns 10x. Move the slider: at 4x the fair value is about $151 and at 12x about $339, so this one input swings the answer more than every operating assumption on this page combined. What the model does NOT count: NVIDIA's strategic investments in its own customers, and the $119.0B of supply commitments sitting behind the ramp.
Read the other way round: at $218.36 the market is paying 6.5x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Data Center — Compute | Data Center — Networking | Edge Computing | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q3E | $80.41B | $20.08B | $7.49B | $107.97B | +89% | $70.95B | $3.26B | $56.18B | +141 | $54.85B |
| 2027 Q4E | $90.35B | $23.07B | $7.77B | $121.19B | +78% | $78.87B | $3.87B | $62.25B | +129 | $59.36B |
| 2028 Q1E | $101.53B | $26.51B | $8.04B | $136.08B | +67% | $87.79B | $4.55B | $69.09B | +118 | $64.32B |
| 2028 Q2E | $114.08B | $30.47B | $8.31B | $152.85B | +59% | $97.84B | $5.32B | $76.79B | +109 | $69.81B |
| 2028 Q3E | $128.19B | $35.01B | $8.57B | $171.77B | +59% | $109.16B | $6.19B | $85.46B | +109 | $75.86B |
| 2028 Q4E | $144.04B | $40.24B | $8.82B | $193.09B | +59% | $121.92B | $7.18B | $95.23B | +109 | $82.55B |
| 2029 Q1E | $161.85B | $46.24B | $9.07B | $217.16B | +60% | $136.30B | $8.29B | $106.25B | +109 | $89.92B |
| 2029 Q2E | $178.14B | $52.05B | $9.32B | $239.50B | +57% | $149.45B | $9.36B | $116.28B | +105 | $96.10B |
| 2029 Q3E | $176.35B | $52.70B | $9.56B | $238.61B | +39% | $147.80B | $9.50B | $114.79B | +87 | $92.63B |
| 2029 Q4E | $174.59B | $53.36B | $9.79B | $237.74B | +23% | $146.26B | $9.63B | $113.41B | +71 | $89.36B |
| 2030 Q1E | $172.85B | $54.03B | $10.03B | $236.90B | +9% | $144.84B | $9.73B | $112.14B | +56 | $86.28B |
| 2030 Q2E | $171.12B | $54.70B | $10.25B | $236.07B | −1% | $143.51B | $9.82B | $110.96B | +46 | $83.36B |
| 2030 Q3E | $169.41B | $55.38B | $10.48B | $235.27B | −1% | $142.27B | $9.90B | $109.87B | +45 | $80.60B |
| 2030 Q4E | $167.71B | $56.08B | $10.70B | $234.49B | −1% | $141.11B | $9.97B | $108.85B | +45 | $77.98B |
| 2031 Q1E | $166.03B | $56.78B | $10.93B | $233.74B | −1% | $140.03B | $10.02B | $107.91B | +45 | $75.48B |
| 2031 Q2E | $164.37B | $57.49B | $11.15B | $233.01B | −1% | $139.02B | $10.06B | $107.03B | +45 | $73.10B |
| 2031 Q3E | $162.73B | $58.21B | $11.37B | $232.30B | −1% | $138.07B | $10.10B | $106.21B | +44 | $70.84B |
| 2031 Q4E | $161.10B | $58.93B | $11.58B | $231.62B | −1% | $137.17B | $10.13B | $105.45B | +44 | $68.67B |
| 2032 Q1E | $159.49B | $59.67B | $11.80B | $230.96B | −1% | $136.33B | $10.15B | $104.73B | +44 | $66.60B |
| 2032 Q2E | $157.90B | $60.42B | $12.02B | $230.33B | −1% | $135.54B | $10.16B | $104.06B | +44 | $64.61B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | $245.07 | First cut, built on the 2027 Q1 CFO commentary. Three verticals on the market-platform axis; rack count and rack price carry both Data Center lines. |
| 2026-08-18 | $245.07 | Rack ceiling raised from 48,000 to 65,000 a quarter, which is what moved the fair value; the ramp now runs to 2030 before it binds. Each scenario also discounts at its own rate — Bear 13%, Bull 9% — and carries its own terminal growth delta. |
| 2026-08-31 | $252.93 | Rolled forward one quarter onto the 2027 Q2 print (quarter ended 26 July 2026, reported 26 August). Basis 2027 Q1 -> 2027 Q2; actuals added for all three verticals. The compute/networking split NVIDIA used to tabulate is gone, so both Data Center actuals are now estimates derived from one sentence on the call — networking +18% sequentially, compute the remainder of $89,023M. Rack count re-derived at 24,095 on a $2.97M rack (the published price drifted one quarter, not re-cut), volume growth 10.5% -> 13.5% to land the $108.0B guide for 2027 Q3, networking content per rack 734k -> 725k, Edge 3% -> 4%. Shares, net cash and price refreshed off the release. Nothing in the thesis changed: the ceiling, the price drift, the margins and the exit multiple are all as published. The consequence is that the 65,000-rack ceiling now binds in 2029 Q2 rather than 2030, because volume both beat the last projection by 8% and re-accelerated. Two things the print argues against and this revision deliberately does NOT act on: Vera Rubin at ~$40B of revenue per gigawatt against a falling rack price, and the guided gross-margin reset to 72-73% for FY2028. |