NOW · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Reported segments only: ServiceNow publishes exactly two revenue lines, subscription and professional services and other, and this model carries exactly those two. Every historical quarter is disclosed - nothing is apportioned, nothing is estimated. Vertical margins are the gross margins the company guides or discloses (81% non-GAAP subscription for FY2026, -14.5% non-GAAP for services); operating expenses are not disclosed by line, so all of them sit in corporate overhead, set at 47.0% of revenue, which is the level that reproduces the guided FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin of 31.5% in the first projected quarter. Free cash flow here is EBITDA less capex less tax at the disclosed 21% non-GAAP rate; it is NOT the company's non-GAAP free cash flow margin of 35%, which adds back stock-based compensation and the working-capital benefit of deferred revenue. Both verticals are deliberately aseasonal - twelve interior quarters of ratio-to-moving-average factors sit within 1.4% of 1.0 on the subscription line with a wider spread than signal. The Q3/Q4 2026 sequential zigzag in guidance is a one-off federal pull-forward and is smoothed rather than encoded, so the model prints 2026 Q3 subscription revenue of $4,053m against guidance of $3,975-3,980m and 2026 Q4 of $4,232m against the $4,245m the FY guide implies, with H2 in aggregate 0.8% above the guided sum. No consensus is carried: the available EPS consensus sits on a third accounting basis from either the GAAP $0.29 or the non-GAAP $0.90 ServiceNow reported.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.