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NET · Forward model · Self-serve and mid-market · Bull case

What has to happen in Self-serve and mid-market

Model as of

This page changes Self-serve and mid-market inside the complete NET model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NET forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $518.56 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $551M 14% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.78B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Workers and Zero Trust push revenue per large account up faster than new accounts dilute it, the edge-inference build turns into pricing power rather than margin drag, and Act 4 becomes the toll booth of the agentic internet on the back of Cloudflare sitting in front of a fifth of the web.

Self-serve and mid-market

Basis quarter$188M
Final quarter$551M
Implied CAGR+24%
Final revenue mix14%

Everything under $100,000 a year: the free tier converting to Pro and Business, the millions of small properties, and the mid-market accounts that have not crossed into the large cohort yet. It is 27% of revenue and shrinking as a share, but it grew 26% year over year in absolute terms, and it is the only funnel the large-customer cohort is fed from.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $152M Estimated
2025 Q4 $166M Estimated
2026 Q1 $179M Estimated
2026 Q2 $188M Estimated
Pro and Business plansMid-market contracts below the $100k lineUsage-based Workers and R2 spend on self-serve accounts
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 5% a quarter, below the 6.1% this residual ran at over the last year, as graduating accounts leave for the large cohort.
Self-serve and mid-market

Latest: $551M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $149M
2025Q3 $152M
2025Q4 $166M
2026Q1 $179M
2026Q2 $188M
2026Q3E $201M
2026Q4E $215M
2027Q1E $229M
2027Q2E $243M
2027Q3E $258M
2027Q4E $273M
2028Q1E $289M
2028Q2E $305M
2028Q3E $322M
2028Q4E $339M
2029Q1E $357M
2029Q2E $375M
2029Q3E $395M
2029Q4E $415M
2030Q1E $435M
2030Q2E $457M
2030Q3E $479M
2030Q4E $502M
2031Q1E $526M
2031Q2E $551M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one line modelled on a growth rate, and it is a last resort rather than a choice. Cloudflare discloses the large-customer count and share but publishes nothing about the shape of the remainder — no count, no price, no retention. A driver built from invented inputs would look more rigorous and be less true, so the residual gets a rate and an honest label.
  • It carries the highest margin in the model and the lowest capex, because self-serve costs almost nothing to sell and runs on the network the enterprise cohort already paid to build. That is also why it is the wrong place to look for growth: this cohort exists to feed the large-customer line, and every account that succeeds here leaves it.
  • Being a residual, this line absorbs every error in the split above it. If the disclosed large-customer percentage is rounded up in a quarter, this line is rounded down by the same dollars. Do not read a wobble in its sequential growth as a change in the self-serve business.
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