NET · Forward model · Large customers (>$100k) · Bear case
What has to happen in Large customers (>$100k)
Model as of
This page changes Large customers (>$100k) inside the complete NET model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Large customers (>$100k)
The 4,698 accounts spending more than $100,000 a year, which are 73% of revenue and rising. This is where Acts 1, 2 and 3 all land: an enterprise buys the reverse proxy first, then Zero Trust, then Workers and R2, and the whole expansion shows up as revenue per account rather than as a new line. Dollar-based net retention of 120% is the number that decides this vertical, and the count of accounts is the number that decides how fast it compounds.
Latest: $972M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | $364M |
| 2025Q3 | $410M |
| 2025Q4 | $449M |
| 2026Q1 | $461M |
| 2026Q2 | $508M |
| 2026Q3E | $528M |
| 2026Q4E | $548M |
| 2027Q1E | $568M |
| 2027Q2E | $589M |
| 2027Q3E | $610M |
| 2027Q4E | $631M |
| 2028Q1E | $652M |
| 2028Q2E | $674M |
| 2028Q3E | $696M |
| 2028Q4E | $718M |
| 2029Q1E | $741M |
| 2029Q2E | $764M |
| 2029Q3E | $788M |
| 2029Q4E | $813M |
| 2030Q1E | $838M |
| 2030Q2E | $863M |
| 2030Q3E | $890M |
| 2030Q4E | $916M |
| 2031Q1E | $944M |
| 2031Q2E | $972M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled on accounts x revenue per account rather than a growth rate, because both halves are disclosed every quarter and they move independently: the count is a sales-motion number and the price is a product-attach number. A single growth rate would hide which one is carrying the quarter, which is the only interesting question about this cohort.
- The Acts are inside this line, not beside it. Workers and Zero Trust sell into accounts that already buy application services, so their contribution arrives as revenue per account rising from $97,992 to $108,158 over the last five quarters. If you want a view on Workers specifically, take it by moving the price drift, not by inventing a Workers vertical.
- Capex intensity RISES here, 10% to 13%, which is the opposite of every other mature line on this site. AI inference at the edge needs GPUs in points of presence that used to hold cache; gross margin has already fallen from 77.8% to 71.8% over four years on exactly this. The margin glide up to 44% assumes the May 2026 restructuring — a 20% workforce reduction, $140-150M of charges — pays for that capex in operating leverage. If it does not, this line is the first place it shows.
- The dollar split is derived, the inputs are not. Cloudflare disclosed 71%, 73%, 73%, 72% and 73% for the five quarters here, and disclosed the account count each time. Multiplying one by the other is arithmetic on two disclosures — but the percentages are rounded to whole numbers, so treat the level as good to about half a point of revenue and no better.