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NDAQ · Forward model · Regulatory Technology

What has to happen in Regulatory Technology

Model as of

This page changes Regulatory Technology inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $103.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $202M 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.19B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Regulatory Technology

Basis quarter$120M
Final quarter$202M
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix9%

AxiomSL regulatory reporting and Nasdaq's market-surveillance platform, sold to banks, brokers and regulators. The earning base is disclosed ARR of $428M at 30 June 2026 monetising at $0.280 per dollar of ARR per quarter. It is the smallest of the three Financial Technology lines and the steadiest by ARR, adding between $9M and $18M in each of the last six quarters, and the only line in the model with an unexplained quarter in its history.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $109M Reported
2025 Q4 $113M Reported
2026 Q1 $118M Reported
2026 Q2 $120M Reported
AxiomSL regulatory reportingNasdaq Trade SurveillanceMarket-abuse and conduct surveillance for regulators
ARR base 428 $M of ARR at the basis quarter $428M of Regulatory Technology ARR at 30 June 2026, printed in the Key Drivers table.
Net new ARR 13 $M of ARR/qtr changing +1.0% per quarter The four-quarter mean exactly: +13, +18, +12, +9. That is 12.7%/yr against 13.8% just delivered.
Utilisation 100% share of a quarter of ending ARR that lands as revenue, gliding toward 100% 100%: the whole ARR base earns. The revenue-to-ARR ratio lives in the price leg.
Revenue per $M of ARR $280374/qtr drifting +0.1% per quarter $120M over $428M of period-end ARR, the steadiest of the three ratios at 0.274 to 0.282 for two years.
Regulatory Technology

Latest: $202M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $90M
2024Q2 $95M
2024Q3 $68M
2024Q4 $98M
2025Q1 $101M
2025Q2 $104M
2025Q3 $109M
2025Q4 $113M
2026Q1 $118M
2026Q2 $120M
2026Q3E $124M
2026Q4E $128M
2027Q1E $132M
2027Q2E $135M
2027Q3E $139M
2027Q4E $143M
2028Q1E $147M
2028Q2E $151M
2028Q3E $155M
2028Q4E $159M
2029Q1E $164M
2029Q2E $168M
2029Q3E $172M
2029Q4E $176M
2030Q1E $180M
2030Q2E $185M
2030Q3E $189M
2030Q4E $193M
2031Q1E $198M
2031Q2E $202M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The 2024 Q3 print of $68M, against $95M the quarter before and $98M the quarter after, is this model's outstanding anomaly. It is a reported figure, corroborated by the $253M nine-month total in the same table, and the release offers no explanation for it. It has not recurred, and it is why this line is treated as aseasonal: one unexplained quarter is not a season.
  • The three-way split of Financial Technology into Financial Crime Management, Regulatory Technology and Capital Markets Technology begins with the 2024 Q1 release. Before it, Verafin sat inside Regulatory Technology, which is why the restated 2023 Q4 figure is $110M against the $170M originally printed and why this history starts at 2024 Q1.
  • AxiomSL revenue includes term licences recognised at renewal, which makes single quarters lumpier than the ARR base behind them suggests. The capacity driver deliberately runs off ARR rather than off reported revenue for that reason.
  • The margin is the Financial Technology divisional margin applied uniformly, as on the other two lines of that division.
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