NDAQ · Forward model · Capital Markets Technology
What has to happen in Capital Markets Technology
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Capital Markets Technology
Calypso capital-markets software, the Eqlipse marketplace platform sold to other exchanges, and Trade Management Services, the connectivity and data-centre services broker-dealers buy to reach the market. It is the largest Financial Technology line at $321M and the largest ARR base in the company at $1,083M. It is also the only line in this model with a defensible quarterly shape: revenue fell sequentially in the third quarter in both 2024 and 2025 and peaked in the fourth in both, because Calypso and Eqlipse revenue includes term licences and delivery milestones that land on a contract calendar rather than ratably.
Latest: $569M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $238M |
| 2024Q2 | $258M |
| 2024Q3 | $234M |
| 2024Q4 | $267M |
| 2025Q1 | $254M |
| 2025Q2 | $279M |
| 2025Q3 | $264M |
| 2025Q4 | $294M |
| 2026Q1 | $306M |
| 2026Q2 | $321M |
| 2026Q3E | $301M |
| 2026Q4E | $341M |
| 2027Q1E | $332M |
| 2027Q2E | $367M |
| 2027Q3E | $343M |
| 2027Q4E | $387M |
| 2028Q1E | $376M |
| 2028Q2E | $414M |
| 2028Q3E | $386M |
| 2028Q4E | $435M |
| 2029Q1E | $422M |
| 2029Q2E | $464M |
| 2029Q3E | $432M |
| 2029Q4E | $485M |
| 2030Q1E | $470M |
| 2030Q2E | $515M |
| 2030Q3E | $479M |
| 2030Q4E | $537M |
| 2031Q1E | $519M |
| 2031Q2E | $569M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The seasonal factors are measured by ratio to a CENTRED four-quarter moving average, not to a year mean. The signal is 9.7% peak to trough against a worst window-to-window spread of 3.3%, and the raw sequential moves corroborate it: $258M to $234M in 2024 and $279M to $264M in 2025, with a fourth-quarter peak both years.
- The Q1 and Q2 factors each rest on a single moving-average window, because only ten clean post-Adenza quarters exist. The Q3 trough and the Q4 peak each rest on two. The shape is recommended on that basis and should be re-tested after two more prints.
- Because seasonality is present, the driver level is the DESEASONALISED trend. Revenue per dollar of ARR is set on $307.6M rather than on the $321M the second quarter printed, so the projected third quarter falls the way the last two third quarters did instead of extrapolating a peak.
- Adenza closed on 1 November 2023, so quarters before 2024 Q1 mix two months of AxiomSL and Calypso with a Nasdaq-only base. They are excluded from every rate and seasonal calculation here, which is the second reason this history starts at 2024 Q1.
- The margin is the Financial Technology divisional margin applied uniformly. Trade Management Services is not sized separately, so the share of this line that is connectivity rather than software is unknown.