MSTR · Forward model · Product licences and other services · Bear case
What has to happen in Product licences and other services
Model as of
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Product licences and other services
The tail. Two printed lines summed: perpetual product licences, which have collapsed from $17.4m a quarter to $3.7m as the company stopped selling them in favour of cloud, and other services - consulting and education - which have been essentially flat between $14.2m and $20.2m for fourteen quarters. Together they are $19.3m a quarter and falling, and what the line converges on is the services business alone, because the licence half is nearly gone. Licences are lumpy by nature: the line printed $17.4m in September 2025 and $3.7m three quarters later, which is exactly why no volume driver can honestly be fitted to it.
Latest: $11M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $38M |
| 2023Q2 | $34M |
| 2023Q3 | $42M |
| 2023Q4 | $38M |
| 2024Q1 | $30M |
| 2024Q2 | $26M |
| 2024Q3 | $27M |
| 2024Q4 | $30M |
| 2025Q1 | $21M |
| 2025Q2 | $22M |
| 2025Q3 | $32M |
| 2025Q4 | $23M |
| 2026Q1 | $21M |
| 2026Q2 | $19M |
| 2026Q3E | $18M |
| 2026Q4E | $17M |
| 2027Q1E | $16M |
| 2027Q2E | $16M |
| 2027Q3E | $15M |
| 2027Q4E | $15M |
| 2028Q1E | $14M |
| 2028Q2E | $14M |
| 2028Q3E | $14M |
| 2028Q4E | $14M |
| 2029Q1E | $13M |
| 2029Q2E | $13M |
| 2029Q3E | $13M |
| 2029Q4E | $13M |
| 2030Q1E | $12M |
| 2030Q2E | $12M |
| 2030Q3E | $12M |
| 2030Q4E | $12M |
| 2031Q1E | $12M |
| 2031Q2E | $11M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Combining the two lines is a sum of two cells printed side by side in one income statement, not an apportionment: the basis quarter is licences 3,667 plus other services 15,598, and the three verticals sum to the reported 122,368 exactly. Quarters are marked estimated only where the arithmetic crossed two filings - the three fourth quarters, each a 10-K full year less the matching nine months.
- Kept as one vertical rather than two because a $3.7m line falling toward zero does not warrant its own driver; splitting it would add a fourth vertical worth 3% of revenue and about a hundredth of a per cent of fair value.
- The September 2025 quarter printed $17.4m of licences against $3.7m in the basis quarter. That is the reason no growth rate fitted to this line should be trusted to two decimal places, and the reason the seasonality test was rejected: the same calendar quarter behaved three different ways in three years, at ratios of 1.1314, 1.0021 and 1.2998.
- Blended gross margin of 35.4% is measured, not assumed: $1,247 thousand of licence cost and $11,194 thousand of services cost against $19,265 thousand of revenue.