MSTR · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

READ THE SCENARIO SPREAD AS A MEASUREMENT, NOT AS A RANGE OF OUTCOMES. This is a bitcoin treasury company. 99.6% of the base case's $122.87 is the bitcoin mark sitting in net cash, and net cash is the one input the scenarios cannot move. Bear to Bull spans $122.37 to $123.83 - 1.2 per cent - while the variable that actually decides the answer sits entirely outside that range. Hold everything else and move only the bitcoin price: at $50,000 net asset value is $65.27 a share, at $60,000 $85.39, at $70,000 $105.51, at $75,412 - the average cost - $116.39, at $78,414, which is where it was on 31 August 2026, $122.43, at $90,000 $145.74, at $100,000 $165.86 and at $120,000 $206.09. Net asset value per share reaches zero at a bitcoin price of $17,552. A narrow scenario spread here means the model is honest about what it can compute, not that the stock is safe. THE COMMON STOCK IS A LEVERED CLAIM, WHICH IS THE POINT MOST OFTEN MISSED. Debt principal of $6.75bn and preferred liquidation preference of about $14.79bn together are 32.5% of the $66.26bn bitcoin position, and both rank ahead of the common. So net asset value per share moves 1.29x any move in bitcoin: a 10% fall in the coin is a 12.9% fall in what a share is worth. This is not an ETF with a ticker. WHAT NET CASH CONTAINS. $51.43bn: 845,050 bitcoin disclosed on 30 August 2026 marked at $78,414.14, which is $66.26bn; plus the $5.10bn USD Reserve and $1.61bn USD Cash disclosed on the same date; less $6,753,703 thousand of debt principal at 30 June ($6,713,659 thousand of convertible notes across six series plus $40,044 thousand of other secured debt); less $14.79bn of preferred liquidation preference, being the $15,462,056 thousand disclosed at 30 June less 6,730,202 STRC shares repurchased since at their $100 stated amount. The $490.5m of Software segment assets and all software working capital are deliberately excluded, which is conservative. Deducting the preferred at liquidation preference rather than expensing its coupon is a choice, and it was cross-checked rather than asserted: leave the preferred inside net cash and instead charge the disclosed $1.76bn annual dividend and interest obligation as a perpetual cost, and the answer is $122.2 a share - within sixty cents. The headline treatment is preferred because the alternative applies an EBITDA exit multiple to a large negative number, where the multiple would swing fair value by $12 a share for no economic reason. THE CARRY IS THE THING TO WATCH. The 10-Q states that expected annual preferred dividends and interest are approximately $1.76 billion, assuming STRC at 12.00% per annum. That is 2.66% of the bitcoin position every year, and it is paid in cash. The board's USD Reserve policy requires at least twelve months of it to be held in cash at all times; the reserve stood at $5.10bn on 30 August, about 35 months. The STRC rate has ratcheted up all year - 11.00% in January, 11.25% in February, 11.50% from March, 12.00% from mid-July - and management has said it will not cut until STRC trades near its $100 stated amount. Strategy's own published cost of credit, its BTC Hurdle ARR, was 10.8% at 26 July 2026: that is the rate bitcoin must compound at before the levered structure adds anything to the common. THE FLYWHEEL RAN BACKWARDS FOR TWO MONTHS. In the June quarter the company raised $8.41bn of gross ATM proceeds, $5.47bn of it STRC preferred, and bought 85,296 bitcoin. Then it stopped. Across the nine weekly filings from 6 July to 31 August it sold no preferred at all - every STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD row is a dash and each series' remaining capacity is unchanged - and sold $5.16bn of common stock instead, using it to pay preferred dividends, to lift the USD Reserve from $2.40bn to $5.10bn, and to retire 6,730,202 STRC shares for $635.2m against $673.0m of liquidation preference, a 5.6% discount on an instrument costing 12%. It also sold 5,258 bitcoin and held the count flat for three straight weeks before buying 4,603 back on 30 August at an average of $80,318. In May it had already repurchased $1.50bn of 2029 convertible principal for $1.38bn at an 8% discount. For two months this company shrank the claims on its bitcoin rather than adding to the bitcoin. WHAT IS REPORTED AND WHAT IS NOT. The three verticals are the four revenue lines Strategy prints on the face of its income statement, with product licences and other services summed. They reconcile to reported consolidated revenue exactly in all fourteen quarters, with no residual in any of them - $122,368 thousand in the basis quarter. Nothing is apportioned. The nine actuals marked estimated are the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 in each vertical, computed as the 10-K full year less the nine months in that year's third-quarter 10-Q; each reconciles to the consolidated total already stored for this ticker. The Bitcoin segment is deliberately NOT a vertical: the 10-Q reports its revenue as an em dash in every period presented, and inventing a yield or a monetisation rate for it would be inventing the number the company reports as nil. Its running cost is in corporate overhead instead - $15.9m in the basis quarter, 13.0% of consolidated revenue, being the segment's sales and marketing, general and administrative, custody fees and payroll taxes, excluding share-based compensation and excluding the bitcoin mark. The one figure in the verticals that is genuinely assumed is the EBITDA margin: Strategy discloses cost of revenue by line but never operating expense, so the Software segment's opex is allocated pro rata to each line's gross profit. That moves EBITDA between the three verticals and leaves the software total unchanged. WHY THE EARNINGS ARE UNUSABLE. Under ASU 2023-08 the bitcoin is carried at fair value with changes running through OPERATING expenses, not below the line. The basis quarter's $8.32bn unrealised loss is inside the $8.33bn operating loss, and reported diluted EPS across the last six quarters has been -16.49, +32.60, +8.42, -42.94, -38.25 and -24.45. That is a $75 range on a company with $122m of quarterly revenue. No consensus comparison is recorded anywhere in this model, deliberately: a beat or miss computed against those numbers would measure the analysts' bitcoin assumption and nothing about the company. TWO INPUTS GO STALE FAST. The share count of 420,074,199 is derived, not disclosed - the 24 July 2026 cover page plus five weeks of ATM sales from the weekly 8-Ks - and Strategy sold 18.3 million shares in a single week in August. It has $44.3bn of remaining ATM capacity across five securities, about 79% of its market capitalisation. Net cash is marked at one day's bitcoin price. Both should be refreshed from the latest weekly 8-K whenever this model is revisited; anything more than a week old is stale.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.