INTC · Forward model · All Other · Bull case

Demand stays ahead of supply for longer than the base case assumes and Intel converts it. Management raised 2026 capital expenditure by roughly $3B and lifted tooling 40% because of demand signals, and says the constraint runs into 2027 - which means the 2026 Q2 ASP level is defended rather than competed away. Guidance of $15.8-16.8B already sits well above the $15.1B the street carried into the print. This case adds growth everywhere and more of it to DCAI and Intel Foundry, so external foundry revenue grows faster than internal wafer transfer and the eliminations ratio falls below the base case's terminal 0.90. Revenue reaches $114.1B across the four quarters to 2031 Q2 against $83.1B in the base case, and the exit multiple goes to 13x - and even then the case values Intel at $77.13, below the $88.24 price.