GS · Forward model · Asset & Wealth Management
What has to happen in Asset & Wealth Management
Model as of
This page changes Asset & Wealth Management inside the complete GS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Asset & Wealth Management
Management and other fees on a record $4,041B of assets under supervision, incentive fees, private banking and lending, and an Investments line that marks the firm's remaining balance-sheet positions. $4,597M in the basis quarter, 22.6% of the firm. Management and other fees of $3,355M are 73% of the line and were themselves a record, at a disclosed 30bp total average effective fee. The line is projected as sequential growth because the other 27% - incentive fees, private banking and lending, and Investments - is not priced off assets under supervision.
Latest: $6.19B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $3.27B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.15B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.34B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.45B |
| 2024Q1 | $3.87B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.86B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.82B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.71B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.83B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.72B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.08B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.60B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.83B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.79B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.84B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.88B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.13B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.15B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.13B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.18B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.44B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.52B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.45B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.50B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.77B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.92B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.78B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.83B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.13B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.35B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.14B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONALITY APPLIED, factors [0.9439, 0.9380, 0.9710, 1.1471] by ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average: signal 0.2091 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.1262, a 1.66:1 ratio. On windows that do not reach into 2026 it is [0.9457, 0.9398, 0.9337, 1.1808], signal 0.2471 against a 0.0785 spread, 3.15:1. The Q4 lift is the only seasonal pattern in this company that survives every test: the per-year Q4 ratios are 1.252, 1.169 and 1.132, above 1 in all three years.
- The mechanism is disclosed, not inferred. Fourth-quarter incentive fees were $59M in 2023, $174M in 2024 and $181M in 2025 against $23M-$183M in other quarters, and fourth-quarter Investments revenue was $1,282M, $1,044M and $670M, the largest quarter of each year. Year-end fund valuations and incentive-fee crystallisation are why Q4 runs about 15% above trend.
- Because the basis quarter is a calendar Q2 with a factor of 0.9380, the engine divides the $4,597M base by 0.9380 to $4,900.9M before the driver runs. growthQoQ is therefore a deseasonalised trend rate and not a sequential revenue forecast. Running the line aseasonal instead prints $1,038.49 against $1,049.13, about -1.0%.
- A capacity driver on assets under supervision was considered and rejected. AUS and a 30bp effective fee are both disclosed and would price management fees, but those are only 73% of the line; charging a fee rate on client assets to produce the whole segment would imply the volatile Investments line scales with AUS, which it does not.
- The 24.19% margin is pre-tax earnings of $1,112M on $4,597M, net of $3,458M of operating expenses and the segment's own $27M provision. Terminal 26.0% sits below the 27.25% 2024-25 blend and above the 22.90% fourteen-quarter blend: operating leverage, not fee expansion.