GS · Forward model · Asset & Wealth Management · Bull case
What has to happen in Asset & Wealth Management
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Asset & Wealth Management
Management and other fees on a record $4,041B of assets under supervision, incentive fees, private banking and lending, and an Investments line that marks the firm's remaining balance-sheet positions. $4,597M in the basis quarter, 22.6% of the firm. Management and other fees of $3,355M are 73% of the line and were themselves a record, at a disclosed 30bp total average effective fee. The line is projected as sequential growth because the other 27% - incentive fees, private banking and lending, and Investments - is not priced off assets under supervision.
Latest: $6.84B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $3.27B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.15B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.34B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.45B |
| 2024Q1 | $3.87B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.86B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.82B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.71B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.83B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.72B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.08B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.60B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.85B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.85B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.91B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.98B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.26B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.33B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.32B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.39B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.69B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.86B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.76B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.84B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.16B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.43B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.67B |
| 2030Q4E | $8.04B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.75B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.84B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONALITY APPLIED, factors [0.9439, 0.9380, 0.9710, 1.1471] by ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average: signal 0.2091 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.1262, a 1.66:1 ratio. On windows that do not reach into 2026 it is [0.9457, 0.9398, 0.9337, 1.1808], signal 0.2471 against a 0.0785 spread, 3.15:1. The Q4 lift is the only seasonal pattern in this company that survives every test: the per-year Q4 ratios are 1.252, 1.169 and 1.132, above 1 in all three years.
- The mechanism is disclosed, not inferred. Fourth-quarter incentive fees were $59M in 2023, $174M in 2024 and $181M in 2025 against $23M-$183M in other quarters, and fourth-quarter Investments revenue was $1,282M, $1,044M and $670M, the largest quarter of each year. Year-end fund valuations and incentive-fee crystallisation are why Q4 runs about 15% above trend.
- Because the basis quarter is a calendar Q2 with a factor of 0.9380, the engine divides the $4,597M base by 0.9380 to $4,900.9M before the driver runs. growthQoQ is therefore a deseasonalised trend rate and not a sequential revenue forecast. Running the line aseasonal instead prints $1,038.49 against $1,049.13, about -1.0%.
- A capacity driver on assets under supervision was considered and rejected. AUS and a 30bp effective fee are both disclosed and would price management fees, but those are only 73% of the line; charging a fee rate on client assets to produce the whole segment would imply the volatile Investments line scales with AUS, which it does not.
- The 24.19% margin is pre-tax earnings of $1,112M on $4,597M, net of $3,458M of operating expenses and the segment's own $27M provision. Terminal 26.0% sits below the 27.25% 2024-25 blend and above the 22.90% fourteen-quarter blend: operating leverage, not fee expansion.