GS · Forward model · Platform Solutions · Bear case
What has to happen in Platform Solutions
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Platform Solutions
The Apple Card book and the residue of businesses Goldman has exited. $221M of net revenues in the basis quarter against $619M a year earlier, after markdowns on a loan portfolio moved to held-for-sale in 4Q25 and contracted to transition to another issuer over roughly 24 months from December 2025. This is a run-off modelled as a decay, not a business with a growth rate. It is 1.09% of firm revenue and -0.56% of firm pre-tax earnings and cannot move the valuation; it is carried separately because it is a reportable segment.
Latest: $42M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $489M |
| 2023Q2 | $571M |
| 2023Q3 | $495M |
| 2023Q4 | $503M |
| 2024Q1 | $614M |
| 2024Q2 | $605M |
| 2024Q3 | $318M |
| 2024Q4 | $592M |
| 2025Q1 | $610M |
| 2025Q2 | $619M |
| 2025Q3 | $598M |
| 2025Q4 | −$1.68B |
| 2026Q1 | $411M |
| 2026Q2 | $221M |
| 2026Q3E | $218M |
| 2026Q4E | $212M |
| 2027Q1E | $204M |
| 2027Q2E | $194M |
| 2027Q3E | $182M |
| 2027Q4E | $170M |
| 2028Q1E | $158M |
| 2028Q2E | $145M |
| 2028Q3E | $133M |
| 2028Q4E | $121M |
| 2029Q1E | $110M |
| 2029Q2E | $100M |
| 2029Q3E | $90M |
| 2029Q4E | $81M |
| 2030Q1E | $73M |
| 2030Q2E | $66M |
| 2030Q3E | $59M |
| 2030Q4E | $53M |
| 2031Q1E | $47M |
| 2031Q2E | $42M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- capexIntensity is EXACTLY 0 here and 0.2% on the other two verticals. Basis-quarter revenue is positive at $221M so the negative-revenue rule does not bite today, but 2025 Q4 revenue was MINUS $1,676M and the projected line decays toward zero: a positive intensity on a negative revenue would produce a negative capex, which the engine would add to free cash flow as a phantom inflow.
- 2025 Q4 is left exactly as reported. Net revenues of -$1,676M came from $2.26B of markdowns on the Apple Card portfolio and contract-termination obligations, alongside a POSITIVE pre-tax result of +$143M because the same filing released $2.48B of loan-loss reserves. Negative revenue with positive pre-tax earnings is what the filing says; it is not a data error.
- The -21.72% margin is a pre-tax LOSS of $48M on $221M, against $269M of operating expenses and a provision of nil - the Apple Card portfolio moved to held-for-sale, so no provision is taken on it. Terminal 0% assumes the costs leave with the book; a run-off residue should not carry a permanent loss margin.
- Seasonality is not tested here and must not be applied. The series contains a negative quarter and a structural break, so no ratio to a moving average would be interpretable, and a vertical in run-off carries no calendar shape.
- One engine artefact worth naming: a negative growth delta on a positive-revenue, negative-margin line makes the loss SMALLER, worth about $5M a quarter in the bear case. It is immaterial and, unlike a negative-revenue residual, needs no offsetting vertical delta.