GRAB · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Grab's segment disclosure carries this model further than most. Every quarter it publishes Deliveries, Mobility, Financial Services and Others revenue, and those four lines sum to consolidated revenue with zero residual in each of the six quarters from 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q2 - no segment here is derived by subtraction, and no split has been invented. Deliveries and Mobility also publish GMV and Segment Adjusted EBITDA, so both On-Demand verticals run on a disclosed volume times a disclosed monetisation rate: units are millions of dollars of GMV and price per unit is revenue per $1m of GMV. Financial Services cannot be modelled that way. Its perimeter changed twice inside the window - Superbank consolidated in June 2026, Stash from Q3 2026 - the loan-portfolio metric switched from net to gross between the Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 releases, and revenue per dollar of loan book fell from 12.0% to 5.8% as the book outgrew the revenue. It gets a growth driver with the $2,318m book recorded as an observation. What this model calls EBITDA is Grab's Adjusted EBITDA exactly: the four Segment Adjusted EBITDA lines less the single unallocated regional corporate cost line, which reproduces the reported $168m in the June quarter ($96m + $191m - $15m - $0m - $104m). Read the exit multiple against that, and read it knowing Adjusted EBITDA adds back $62m of quarterly share-based compensation - roughly $250m a year of real dilution this model never charges, on a share count held flat even though Grab is buying stock back. Two further boundaries. Net cash is $2,887m, not the company-defined $5.4bn of net cash liquidity: $2,513m of that funds bank customer deposits, which are a liability to depositors rather than shareholder cash, and using the company figure would add about $0.62 a share. Capex is the broader $49m from the Adjusted Free Cash Flow reconciliation, not the $28m of property and intangibles in the cash flow statement, and Grab publishes no capex by segment, so the group rate of 4.9% of revenue is applied to the three real verticals and none to Others. foodpanda Taiwan appears only as a $600m cash outflow in 2026 Q4: the price is disclosed and the revenue is not, so it must not become a vertical. Autonomous vehicles are already inside Mobility GMV and get no line either. And the reported profit is not an operating result - $235m of it is $19m of operating profit plus $171m of net finance income containing a one-time $307m Superbank remeasurement gain and a $43m tax credit - which is why the exit is on revenue and why no EPS consensus comparison appears anywhere in this model.
Mobility is repricing itself downward and the cash conversion is not there. Volume growth runs 1.5 points a quarter slower everywhere and 2 points slower again in Mobility, segment margins sit 4 points below June's, Financial Services stays loss-making rather than crossing over in H2 2026, and the exit de-rates to 1.8x. Strip the one-time Superbank gain and the tax credit and the record quarter was $19m of operating profit on $997m of revenue; this is what that quarter looks like if it is the trend rather than the trough. Fair value $2.41, below the current price.
Latest: $1.51B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $773M |
| 2025Q2 | $819M |
| 2025Q3 | $873M |
| 2025Q4 | $906M |
| 2026Q1 | $955M |
| 2026Q2 | $997M |
| 2026Q3E | $1.02B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.05B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.07B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.09B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.12B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.14B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.19B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.24B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.27B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.32B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.34B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.37B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.40B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.43B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.45B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.48B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.51B |
What drives each segment
Deliveries
Units × priceFood, grocery and parcel delivery, the Jaya Grocer and Everrise supermarkets, and the GrabAds advertising sold against the marketplace. $531m of revenue in the basis quarter, 53% of the group, on $4,249m of GMV. Both halves are disclosed every quarter, so the driver is GMV in dollars times revenue per dollar of GMV. The take rate has held between 12.32% and 13.26% for six quarters while advertising has grown into it.
Latest: $963M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $415M |
| 2025Q2 | $439M |
| 2025Q3 | $465M |
| 2025Q4 | $481M |
| 2026Q1 | $510M |
| 2026Q2 | $531M |
| 2026Q3E | $548M |
| 2026Q4E | $565M |
| 2027Q1E | $582M |
| 2027Q2E | $600M |
| 2027Q3E | $619M |
| 2027Q4E | $637M |
| 2028Q1E | $657M |
| 2028Q2E | $677M |
| 2028Q3E | $697M |
| 2028Q4E | $718M |
| 2029Q1E | $740M |
| 2029Q2E | $762M |
| 2029Q3E | $785M |
| 2029Q4E | $808M |
| 2030Q1E | $832M |
| 2030Q2E | $857M |
| 2030Q3E | $883M |
| 2030Q4E | $909M |
| 2031Q1E | $936M |
| 2031Q2E | $963M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $96m on $531m of revenue is stated before regional corporate costs, which Grab explicitly does not attribute to any segment. Charging them here as well would double-count; the corporate line is carried once at group level.
- Deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of GMV was 2.3% in the basis quarter, up 45bps YoY from 1.8%. That is the cleanest margin trend in the whole disclosure, and it is what the terminal margin of 26% of revenue is built on.
- GrabAds is named as a driver of both revenue and margin but has not been sized since Q2 2025, when the release disclosed an annualized run-rate of $236m. Advertising is therefore not a sub-line here; it sits inside the take rate.
- foodpanda Taiwan closes in H2 2026 into this segment and would be Grab's first market outside Southeast Asia. Grab has disclosed the $600m price and nothing about the revenue, so it appears only as a corporate capital programme and adds no revenue anywhere in this model.
Mobility
Units × priceRide-hailing and taxi across eight countries, plus GrabRentals and the GrabCab fleet. The profit engine and the slowest grower: $331m of revenue and $191m of Segment Adjusted EBITDA, a 57.7% margin on revenue and 8.6% of GMV. Same disclosure as Deliveries, so the driver is GMV times take rate - but here the take rate is falling, from 15.63% to 14.95% over six quarters, and revenue fell sequentially in the basis quarter for the first time.
Latest: $319M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $282M |
| 2025Q2 | $295M |
| 2025Q3 | $317M |
| 2025Q4 | $325M |
| 2026Q1 | $337M |
| 2026Q2 | $331M |
| 2026Q3E | $330M |
| 2026Q4E | $329M |
| 2027Q1E | $328M |
| 2027Q2E | $328M |
| 2027Q3E | $327M |
| 2027Q4E | $326M |
| 2028Q1E | $326M |
| 2028Q2E | $325M |
| 2028Q3E | $324M |
| 2028Q4E | $324M |
| 2029Q1E | $323M |
| 2029Q2E | $323M |
| 2029Q3E | $322M |
| 2029Q4E | $322M |
| 2030Q1E | $321M |
| 2030Q2E | $321M |
| 2030Q3E | $320M |
| 2030Q4E | $320M |
| 2031Q1E | $319M |
| 2031Q2E | $319M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Autonomous vehicles are deliberately not a vertical. Grab discloses no AV revenue, and an autonomous trip that replaces a human one already sits inside this GMV, so a separate line would count the same trip twice. Anthony Tan said on the Q2 2026 call that Grab aims to launch its first revenue-generating point-to-point AV service in Punggol, Singapore in Q4 2026; it lives in the margin glide and the scenarios, nowhere else.
- The Q2 2026 sequential decline is small in dollars - $6m of revenue on $9m of GMV - but it is the first in the series and it arrives with the lowest take rate in the series. The model does not smooth it over: the price drift stays negative for years.
- Grab does not publish Mobility trips, fares or Mobility MTUs as levels, only YoY growth rates, so GMV is the only per-segment volume that exists as a number. Transactions grew 28% YoY against GMV's 18%, which is the affordability push in one comparison.
- In April 2026 Grab was awarded the inaugural International Cross-border Ride-hail Service Operator Licence between Singapore and Johor. No revenue has been attached to it by the company and none is assumed here.
Financial Services
Growth pathGrabFin plus three Digibanks - GXS Bank (Singapore), GXBank (Malaysia) and Superbank (Indonesia) - lending into the Grab ecosystem. $134m of revenue, +59% YoY, and still $(15)m at the segment line. The gross loan portfolio reached $2,318m and customer deposits $2.5bn. This is the fastest-growing and only loss-making segment, and the one whose perimeter keeps changing, so it runs on a growth driver rather than a volume-times-price one.
Latest: $230M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $75M |
| 2025Q2 | $84M |
| 2025Q3 | $90M |
| 2025Q4 | $99M |
| 2026Q1 | $107M |
| 2026Q2 | $134M |
| 2026Q3E | $143M |
| 2026Q4E | $151M |
| 2027Q1E | $158M |
| 2027Q2E | $165M |
| 2027Q3E | $172M |
| 2027Q4E | $178M |
| 2028Q1E | $184M |
| 2028Q2E | $189M |
| 2028Q3E | $194M |
| 2028Q4E | $199M |
| 2029Q1E | $203M |
| 2029Q2E | $207M |
| 2029Q3E | $210M |
| 2029Q4E | $214M |
| 2030Q1E | $217M |
| 2030Q2E | $220M |
| 2030Q3E | $222M |
| 2030Q4E | $225M |
| 2031Q1E | $227M |
| 2031Q2E | $230M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- No unit driver is defensible here. Revenue per dollar of gross loan portfolio collapsed from 12.0% in Q1 2025 to 5.78% in the basis quarter as the book outgrew the revenue, and the metric itself changed basis mid-window: the Q2 and Q3 2025 releases report a net loan portfolio, the Q1 and Q2 2026 releases a gross one with restated comparatives. The $2,318m book is recorded as an observation, not a multiplier.
- The perimeter moved twice inside the window. Superbank consolidated from June 2026, so only one month of it is in the basis quarter, and Stash closed on 1 July 2026 and consolidates only from Q3 2026. Neither contribution has been sized by the company, so the Q3 2026 step is not inside the 8% growth rate; it is an unpriced upside flagged here instead of hidden.
- Grab publishes no revenue split between lending, payments, insurance and banking net interest income, and none has been created here. The segment is modelled as one line because that is the only way it is reported.
- Credit cost, not revenue, is what stands between this segment and its guided H2 2026 breakeven. Net impairment losses on financial assets more than doubled YoY to $72m on Digibank expected credit losses, plus a separate $15m day-one expected credit loss on the acquired Superbank portfolio that Adjusted EBITDA adds back.
- Loan-book growth is why Grab's Adjusted Free Cash Flow and this site's free cash flow diverge: the company adds back $177m of loan-receivable growth in the quarter and this model does not model the book at all. The gap widens as the book grows.
Others
Growth pathEverything Grab does not put in the three named segments. $1m of revenue in each of the last six quarters and Segment Adjusted EBITDA reported as less than $1m in absolute terms. It exists in this model only so that the four verticals sum to reported consolidated revenue with no residual in any quarter.
Latest: $739,136.43 (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1M |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $1M |
| 2025Q4 | $1M |
| 2026Q1 | $1M |
| 2026Q2 | $1M |
| 2026Q3E | $985,000.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $970,225.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $955,671.62 |
| 2027Q2E | $941,336.55 |
| 2027Q3E | $927,216.50 |
| 2027Q4E | $913,308.25 |
| 2028Q1E | $899,608.63 |
| 2028Q2E | $886,114.50 |
| 2028Q3E | $872,822.78 |
| 2028Q4E | $859,730.44 |
| 2029Q1E | $846,834.49 |
| 2029Q2E | $834,131.97 |
| 2029Q3E | $821,619.99 |
| 2029Q4E | $809,295.69 |
| 2030Q1E | $797,156.25 |
| 2030Q2E | $785,198.91 |
| 2030Q3E | $773,420.93 |
| 2030Q4E | $761,819.61 |
| 2031Q1E | $750,392.32 |
| 2031Q2E | $739,136.43 |
Assumptions & reasoning
- FY2025 Others revenue was $4m against FY2024's $4m, and Grab has never described what sits inside it. Zero margin and zero capex are the honest readings of a segment whose Adjusted EBITDA is disclosed only as an amount smaller than $1m.
- Assigning the group capex rate to a $1m line would put more capex through it than it earns, so this vertical carries none. Every dollar of group capex is charged to the three real segments instead.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the basis quarter actually showed
- Aug 4, 2026 Mobility Segment Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Mobility GMV was 8.6% during the quarter, declining 9bps YoY as we recalibrated incentive spend towards driver-partners to strengthen supply.
- Aug 4, 2026 Operating profit in the second quarter improved $12 million YoY to reach $19 million, while profit for the period was $235 million, growing from $20 million in the prior year period.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The raise, and what management said was behind it
- Aug 4, 2026 2026 Group Revenue $4.10 billion - $4.15 billion 22% - 23% growth YoY (Previous: $4.04 billion - $4.10 billion 20% - 22% growth YoY)
- Aug 4, 2026 We reiterate our expectation to achieve Segment Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2026 for the overall Financial Services segment.
Oey 2028 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Oey 2028 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The 2028 outlook, as published
- Feb 11, 2026 This strong foundation underpins our confidence in our long-term financial outlook, where we expect to generate $1.5 billion in Adjusted EBITDA with an Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 80% by 2028.
- Feb 11, 2026 3 Year Outlook: 2025 - 2028 Group Revenue 20% CAGR, 2028 Adjusted EBITDA $1.5 billion, 2028 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Conversion 80%.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $678M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $5.88B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $807M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 1.8x |
| Terminal value | $10.58B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $6.28B |
| Enterprise value | $6.95B |
| Net cash | $2.89B |
| Equity value | $9.84B |
| Shares | 4.08B |
| Fair value per share | $2.41 |
| Against the current price of $3.59 | -33% |
An emerging-market consumer platform on a 1.9% IFRS operating margin with three currencies of translation drag is not a 9% compounder, so the discount rate is 11%. The exit is on revenue because Grab has no P/E path: the basis quarter's $235m of profit is $19m of operating profit plus $171m of net finance income containing a one-time $307m Superbank gain, plus a $43m tax credit. On deposit-adjusted EV of $11,961m the tape is 3.21x TTM revenue of $3,731m, so exiting at 2.5x on a slower terminal year is a mild de-rate. On the company's own $5.4bn net cash liquidity - which does not deduct $2,513m of bank customer deposits - the same tape reads 2.53x, and that difference is the single largest judgement in this valuation.
Read the other way round: at $3.59 the market is paying 3.2x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
foodpanda Taiwan acquisition
2026 Q4 → 2026 Q4The $600m all-cash purchase of Delivery Hero's foodpanda Taiwan business, announced 23 March 2026 and guided to close by the end of 2026. It is charged once, in 2026 Q4, and adds no revenue anywhere: Grab has disclosed the price and nothing about the revenue, GMV or EBITDA it buys.
The projected path
| Quarter | Deliveries | Mobility | Financial Services | Others | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $548M | $330M | $143M | $985000 | $1.02B | +17% | $122M | $49M | $54M | +22 | $53M |
| 2026 Q4E | $565M | $329M | $151M | $970225 | $1.05B | +15% | $126M | $649M | -$523M | -35 | -$497M |
| 2027 Q1E | $582M | $328M | $158M | $955672 | $1.07B | +12% | $131M | $50M | $60M | +18 | $56M |
| 2027 Q2E | $600M | $328M | $165M | $941337 | $1.09B | +10% | $135M | $50M | $63M | +16 | $57M |
| 2027 Q3E | $619M | $327M | $172M | $927217 | $1.12B | +10% | $140M | $51M | $66M | +15 | $58M |
| 2027 Q4E | $637M | $326M | $178M | $913308 | $1.14B | +9% | $145M | $51M | $70M | +15 | $59M |
| 2028 Q1E | $657M | $326M | $184M | $899609 | $1.17B | +9% | $149M | $52M | $73M | +15 | $60M |
| 2028 Q2E | $677M | $325M | $189M | $886115 | $1.19B | +9% | $154M | $52M | $76M | +15 | $61M |
| 2028 Q3E | $697M | $324M | $194M | $872823 | $1.22B | +9% | $159M | $53M | $79M | +15 | $62M |
| 2028 Q4E | $718M | $324M | $199M | $859730 | $1.24B | +9% | $163M | $54M | $82M | +15 | $63M |
| 2029 Q1E | $740M | $323M | $203M | $846834 | $1.27B | +9% | $168M | $54M | $85M | +15 | $63M |
| 2029 Q2E | $762M | $323M | $207M | $834132 | $1.29B | +8% | $173M | $55M | $87M | +15 | $64M |
| 2029 Q3E | $785M | $322M | $210M | $821620 | $1.32B | +8% | $177M | $56M | $90M | +15 | $64M |
| 2029 Q4E | $808M | $322M | $214M | $809296 | $1.34B | +8% | $182M | $57M | $93M | +15 | $65M |
| 2030 Q1E | $832M | $321M | $217M | $797156 | $1.37B | +8% | $186M | $57M | $96M | +15 | $65M |
| 2030 Q2E | $857M | $321M | $220M | $785199 | $1.40B | +8% | $191M | $58M | $98M | +15 | $65M |
| 2030 Q3E | $883M | $320M | $222M | $773421 | $1.43B | +8% | $195M | $59M | $101M | +15 | $65M |
| 2030 Q4E | $909M | $320M | $225M | $761820 | $1.45B | +8% | $200M | $60M | $104M | +15 | $65M |
| 2031 Q1E | $936M | $319M | $227M | $750392 | $1.48B | +8% | $204M | $61M | $106M | +15 | $65M |
| 2031 Q2E | $963M | $319M | $230M | $739136 | $1.51B | +8% | $208M | $62M | $109M | +15 | $65M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $4.42 | First publication, on the 2026 Q2 basis quarter. Four disclosed segments that reconcile to consolidated revenue to the dollar in all six quarters; Deliveries and Mobility on disclosed GMV times disclosed take rate, Financial Services and Others on growth. foodpanda Taiwan is a corporate capital programme, not a vertical. |