DELL · Forward model · CSG Consumer
What has to happen in CSG Consumer
Model as of
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CSG Consumer
Basis quarter$1.59B
Final quarter$1.64B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix3%
The smallest and most volatile line in the company: $1,589M in the basis quarter, up 9% year over year off a weak comparison, having fallen 19% year over year as recently as FY2026 Q1. It is 3.6% of revenue and carries the lowest margin Dell sells at. It matters to this model mainly because leaving it out would break the reconciliation to reported revenue.
Last four quarters
2026 Q2
$1.72B
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.86B
Reported
2026 Q4
$1.88B
Reported
2027 Q1
$1.59B
Reported
Consumer notebooks and desktops (XPS, Inspiron, Alienware)Consumer peripherals
Sequential growth
+1.0%/qtr
decaying toward 0.0%
Nine disclosed quarters oscillate between $1.46B and $1.99B with no trend; near-flat is the honest path.
CSG Consumer
Latest: $1.64B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1.81B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.86B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.99B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.89B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.46B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.72B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.86B |
| 2026Q4 | $1.88B |
| 2027Q1 | $1.59B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.60B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.62B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.62B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.63B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.63B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.64B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.64B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.64B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.64B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.64B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.64B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.64B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.64B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.64B |
| 2032Q1E | $1.64B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Fully disclosed every quarter for nine quarters, and it oscillates between $1.46B and $1.99B with no trend at all. Do not read this line as a growth story; read it as a floor.
- Terminal growth is set to zero, not to a small positive number, because consumer PC revenue has not grown for Dell across the entire disclosed history. Swings of plus or minus 20% year over year are normal here.
- The 7.0% terminal margin sits below the CSG blend on the judgement that consumer is the price-taking end of a segment whose operating income Dell reports only in aggregate. Component inflation hits consumer pricing hardest and Dell has the least ability to pass it through.