DASH · Forward model · United States · Bull case
What has to happen in United States
Model as of
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United States
The DoorDash Marketplace and Commerce Platform in the US: restaurants, grocery and retail, DashPass, advertising, Drive and SevenRooms. $3,457m of revenue in the basis quarter, 77.6% of the group, up 22.2% year on year. Revenue by geographic area is a filed disaggregation in every 10-Q, so this split is disclosed rather than apportioned. No US-specific order count, Marketplace GOV or margin is published anywhere, so the driver has to be revenue growth rather than the consolidated orders-times-basket chain.
Latest: $6.66B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.66B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.83B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.93B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.05B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.46B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.59B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.72B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.86B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.00B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.14B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.28B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.42B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.57B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.72B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.88B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.04B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.20B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.37B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.54B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.89B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.07B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.26B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.46B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.66B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- DoorDash operates one reportable segment. The only revenue disaggregation it files is United States versus International, and that is the disaggregation used here. 2025 Q4 is derived by subtracting the nine-month figures in the Q3 2025 10-Q from the full-year figures in the 2025 10-K, so it is marked estimated; the two derived halves sum to the reported $3,955m exactly.
- Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, average order value and Net Revenue Margin are disclosed only for the group and are deliberately not split across the two lines. For context they read 970 million orders at a derived $34.10 average order value, giving $33,078m of Marketplace GOV monetised at 13.5%.
- ASEASONAL, derived. Ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average on the six filed US quarters yields only two usable ratios, 1.0017 for 2025 Q3 and 0.9979 for 2025 Q4 - both within 0.2 points of one, and neither quarter label repeats, so window-to-window spread cannot even be measured. On the ten-quarter consolidated revenue series the same method gives Q3 factors of 0.9857 and 0.9694 and Q4 factors of 0.9934 and 1.0336: the largest signal is about 2.2 points and the Q4 window-to-window spread is 4.0 points, so spread exceeds signal. No seasonality is applied.
- Management said US restaurant Marketplace GOV growth accelerated slightly in Q2 2026 and that DashPass members placed roughly 75% of Total Orders in the US grocery and retail categories, but published no US revenue, order or margin figure to attach to either statement, so neither is an input here.
- The 20.52% basis margin is consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $914m over consolidated revenue of $4,454m. DoorDash discloses no geographic profitability at all, so the same rate is applied to both lines: consolidated Adjusted EBITDA reconciles exactly at the basis quarter and only the forward mix is affected. The higher US terminal margin is a judgement about the advertising-rich, scaled half, not a disclosure.