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CVNA · Forward model · Other sales and revenues

What has to happen in Other sales and revenues

Model as of

This page changes Other sales and revenues inside the complete CVNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

CVNA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $89.84 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.09B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.52B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Other sales and revenues

Basis quarter$526M
Final quarter$1.09B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix6%

Gain on sale of the finance receivables Carvana originates against its own retail sales, plus vehicle service contracts and GAP coverage, plus ADESA services; $526M in 2026 Q2, 7.1% of revenue. This line carries no cost of sales - reported other revenue and other gross profit are identical to the dollar in every quarter presented - so it is pure contribution, and Carvana itself publishes its monetisation as Other GPU, other revenue per RETAIL unit. That makes retail units the correct driver: this is an attach-rate business on the retail vertical, not an independent one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $474M Reported
2025 Q4 $459M Reported
2026 Q1 $526M Reported
2026 Q2 $526M Reported
Gain on sale of finance receivables (loan sales, securitisations, the Ally master purchase agreement)EPP: vehicle service contracts and GAP waiver coverageADESA servicesRoot warrant revenue (excluded from every non-GAAP measure)
Units 194883/qtr growing +6.0% per quarter The same 197,325 retail units, deseasonalised by this line’s own factor: this is an attach business on retail.
Price per unit $2666 drifting −2.5% per quarter $2,666 of other revenue per retail unit - the Other GPU Carvana publishes; this line has no cost of sales.
Other sales and revenues

Latest: $1.09B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $161M
2023Q2 $230M
2023Q3 $214M
2023Q4 $148M
2024Q1 $229M
2024Q2 $279M
2024Q3 $326M
2024Q4 $317M
2025Q1 $389M
2025Q2 $411M
2025Q3 $474M
2025Q4 $459M
2026Q1 $526M
2026Q2 $526M
2026Q3E $565M
2026Q4E $518M
2027Q1E $578M
2027Q2E $606M
2027Q3E $654M
2027Q4E $602M
2028Q1E $673M
2028Q2E $706M
2028Q3E $763M
2028Q4E $702M
2029Q1E $784M
2029Q2E $822M
2029Q3E $887M
2029Q4E $815M
2030Q1E $909M
2030Q2E $952M
2030Q3E $1.03B
2030Q4E $940M
2031Q1E $1.05B
2031Q2E $1.09B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Fourteen quarters of the disclosed 'Other sales and revenues' line. Its components - finance gain-on-sale, EPP and ADESA services - are NOT published separately by Carvana, so no sub-line for any of them appears anywhere in this model.
  • The unit count here is retail units, because the company's own metric for this line is other gross profit per retail unit. It is deseasonalised by this line's own factor, which is why it reads 194,883 rather than the retail vertical's 193,456 or the printed 197,325 - the two lines carry slightly different seasonal indices.
  • Other revenue per retail unit has fallen three quarters running: $2,869 in 2025 Q2, $2,807 in 2026 Q1, $2,666 in 2026 Q2, the last of those a 5.0% sequential fall. Management's explanation is explicit - benchmark rates rose while Carvana 'kept customer-facing interest rates stable'. The base case carries that erosion forward at 2.5% a quarter, fading to flat, which lands the figure near $2,270 by 2031. Holding it flat would already be more optimistic than the last four prints.
  • The 98.86% margin is the disclosed 100% gross margin less the $6M of Root warrant revenue that Adjusted EBITDA excludes. It does NOT mean this line drops 99 cents in the dollar to profit: origination, servicing and securitisation costs sit in SG&A and in interest expense, both of which are outside the vertical.
  • This is where the margin question actually lives. At 7% of revenue and 38% of gross profit ($526M of the $1,384M reported in 2026 Q2), the path of other revenue per retail unit moves consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin far more than it moves the revenue line.
  • Loan-sale capacity is contractual and is being consumed: $1.2B unused under the Ally master purchase agreement at 2026-06-30, down from $4.9B at 2025-12-31, and $8.7B under fixed pool agreements, down from $11.3B. The model does not cap this line on that capacity, because Carvana has repeatedly replenished it, but a failure to do so would hit here first.
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