CVNA · Forward model · Other sales and revenues · Bear case
What has to happen in Other sales and revenues
Model as of
This page changes Other sales and revenues inside the complete CVNA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Other sales and revenues
Gain on sale of the finance receivables Carvana originates against its own retail sales, plus vehicle service contracts and GAP coverage, plus ADESA services; $526M in 2026 Q2, 7.1% of revenue. This line carries no cost of sales - reported other revenue and other gross profit are identical to the dollar in every quarter presented - so it is pure contribution, and Carvana itself publishes its monetisation as Other GPU, other revenue per RETAIL unit. That makes retail units the correct driver: this is an attach-rate business on the retail vertical, not an independent one.
Latest: $730M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $161M |
| 2023Q2 | $230M |
| 2023Q3 | $214M |
| 2023Q4 | $148M |
| 2024Q1 | $229M |
| 2024Q2 | $279M |
| 2024Q3 | $326M |
| 2024Q4 | $317M |
| 2025Q1 | $389M |
| 2025Q2 | $411M |
| 2025Q3 | $474M |
| 2025Q4 | $459M |
| 2026Q1 | $526M |
| 2026Q2 | $526M |
| 2026Q3E | $554M |
| 2026Q4E | $498M |
| 2027Q1E | $544M |
| 2027Q2E | $559M |
| 2027Q3E | $591M |
| 2027Q4E | $533M |
| 2028Q1E | $584M |
| 2028Q2E | $601M |
| 2028Q3E | $636M |
| 2028Q4E | $574M |
| 2029Q1E | $628M |
| 2029Q2E | $645M |
| 2029Q3E | $682M |
| 2029Q4E | $615M |
| 2030Q1E | $672M |
| 2030Q2E | $689M |
| 2030Q3E | $727M |
| 2030Q4E | $654M |
| 2031Q1E | $713M |
| 2031Q2E | $730M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Fourteen quarters of the disclosed 'Other sales and revenues' line. Its components - finance gain-on-sale, EPP and ADESA services - are NOT published separately by Carvana, so no sub-line for any of them appears anywhere in this model.
- The unit count here is retail units, because the company's own metric for this line is other gross profit per retail unit. It is deseasonalised by this line's own factor, which is why it reads 194,883 rather than the retail vertical's 193,456 or the printed 197,325 - the two lines carry slightly different seasonal indices.
- Other revenue per retail unit has fallen three quarters running: $2,869 in 2025 Q2, $2,807 in 2026 Q1, $2,666 in 2026 Q2, the last of those a 5.0% sequential fall. Management's explanation is explicit - benchmark rates rose while Carvana 'kept customer-facing interest rates stable'. The base case carries that erosion forward at 2.5% a quarter, fading to flat, which lands the figure near $2,270 by 2031. Holding it flat would already be more optimistic than the last four prints.
- The 98.86% margin is the disclosed 100% gross margin less the $6M of Root warrant revenue that Adjusted EBITDA excludes. It does NOT mean this line drops 99 cents in the dollar to profit: origination, servicing and securitisation costs sit in SG&A and in interest expense, both of which are outside the vertical.
- This is where the margin question actually lives. At 7% of revenue and 38% of gross profit ($526M of the $1,384M reported in 2026 Q2), the path of other revenue per retail unit moves consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin far more than it moves the revenue line.
- Loan-sale capacity is contractual and is being consumed: $1.2B unused under the Ally master purchase agreement at 2026-06-30, down from $4.9B at 2025-12-31, and $8.7B under fixed pool agreements, down from $11.3B. The model does not cap this line on that capacity, because Carvana has repeatedly replenished it, but a failure to do so would hit here first.